How big was the effect of falling commodity prices on Canadian real incomes between mid-2014 and mid-2016? / by Ryan Macdonald and Luke Rispoli. : CS11-626/2016-66E-PDF

"Global prices for commodities began to decline rapidly in the middle of 2014 and continued to decline throughout 2015 and early 2016. As the Bank of Canada’s commodity price index (BCPI) shows, price changes in international markets for commodities important to Canada registered a decline of 53.7% from the second quarter (Q2) of 2014 to 2016 Q1 (Chart 1). Despite some improvement in commodity prices in 2016 Q2, commodity prices remained well below the levels recorded two years earlier. While prices declined for a variety of commodities over this period, oil price changes were of particular note. West Texas Intermediate fell from US$105.79 per barrel in June 2014 to US$30.32 per barrel in February 2016.1 Concurrently, the Canada–U.S. exchange rate declined from US$0.91 (US$/CAN$) in September 2014 to US$0.72 in February 2016. Together, these price changes constituted a significant relative-price shock for the Canadian economy"--Introduction.

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