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008170214s2017    oncd    obs  f000 0 eng d
040 |aCaOODSP|beng
041 |aeng|bfre
043 |an-cn---
0861 |aFB3-5/2017-1E-PDF
1001 |aCorrigan, Paul R. |q(Paul Richard), |d1976-
24510|aTerms-of-trade and house price fluctuations |h[electronic resource] : |ba cross-country study / |cby Paul Corrigan.
260 |a[Ottawa] : |bBank of Canada, |c2017.
300 |aiii, 40 p. : |bcharts (some in col.)
4901 |aBank of Canada staff working paper, |x1701-9397 ; |v2017-1
500 |a"January 2017."
504 |aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 27-31).
5203 |a"Terms-of-trade shocks are known to be key drivers of business cycles in open economies. This paper argues that terms-of-trade shocks were also important for house price fluctuations in a panel of developed countries over the 1994–2015 period. In a panel vector error-correction model of house prices, household debt and real tradable prices, terms-of-trade shocks explain between 16 and 41 per cent of the long-run variance in house price growth in a typical country, and from 45 to 85 per cent of the long-run variance of the ratio of house prices to non-housing consumption. Most of the variation in the house price/consumption ratio is associated with changes in real import prices, with idiosyncratic shocks to real export prices playing a minor role. On average, a permanent 1 per cent decline in real import prices raises the ratio of real house prices to non-housing consumption by about 0.9 per cent"--Abstract, p. ii.
546 |aIncludes abstract in French.
69207|2gccst|aHousing
69207|2gccst|aPrices
7102 |aBank of Canada.
830#0|aStaff working paper (Bank of Canada)|x1701-9397 ; |v2017-1|w(CaOODSP)9.806221
85640|qPDF|s2.83 MB|uhttps://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2017/banque-bank-canada/FB3-5-2017-1-eng.pdf