00000nam 2200000za 4500 9.844601 CaOODSP 20221107152800 cr ||||||||||| 170927s2017 oncd obs f000 0 eng d CaOODSP eng eng fre n-cn--- n-us--- FB3-5/2017-35E-PDF Baumeister, Christiane. Did the Renewable Fuel Standard shift market expectations of the price of ethanol? [electronic resource] / by Christiane Baumeister, Reinhard Ellwanger and Lutz Kilian. [Ottawa] : Bank of Canada, 2017. iii, 54 p. : col. charts Bank of Canada staff working paper, 1701-9397 ; 2017-35 "September 2017." Includes bibliographical references (39-43). “The creation of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) in the United States has had far-reaching implications for the ethanol market (and indirectly for the market for corn), and it is well understood that the response of the price of ethanol (and the price of related commodities such as corn) to shifts in biofuel policies operates in part through market expectations. Yet to date it has proved difficult to measure these expectations and to directly confront these views with the data. In this paper, we utilize a recently proposed methodology to estimate the market’s expectations of the price of ethanol, and for related commodities such as unfinished motor gasoline and crude oil after 2005. We quantify the extent to which price changes were anticipated by the market, the extent to which they were unanticipated, and how the risk premium in these markets has evolved"--Non-technical summary, p. [iv]. Includes abstract in French. gccst Fuels gccst Prices gccst Energy policy gccst Statistical analysis Ellwanger, Reinhard. Kilian, Lutz. Bank of Canada. Staff working paper (Bank of Canada) 1701-9397 ; 2017-35 (CaOODSP)9.806221 PDF 663 KB https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2017/banque-bank-canada/FB3-5-2017-35-eng.pdf