A review of models of population health expectancy : a micro-simulation perspective / by Michael C. Wolfson and Kenneth G. Manton. : CS11-0019/45E-PDF

"A variety of models have been developed to estimate Disability-Free Life Expectancy (DFLE) and related indicators. However, these models typically make no explicit reference to underlying disease processes; nor do they allow for much heterogeneity in health status. Other modeling efforts have focused on patterns of incidence and progression of major diseases, and on more detailed health states. This paper reviews selected models of both types. One objective is to compare and contrast the various underlying assumptions in these models. Another is to develop a common conceptual framework within which all these various models can be naturally represented. This framework provides not only the basis for comparison; it also indicates a possible direction for a synthesis of these models that can bring together the construction of summary health status indicators, including both DFLE and the more general notion of Population Health Expenctacny, and explicit models of risk factor, disease and related processes. Finally, the conceptual framework is readily operationalizaed by use of monte carlo microsimulation methods, and the paper serves to explicate this methodology."--Abstract.

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