Species distribution model of Warmouth (Lepomis gulosus) in Long Point Bay, with evaluation of climate change and phragmites impact scenarios / by M. McCusker. : Fs97-4/3132E-PDF

"Species distribution modeling was conducted for Warmouth at Long Point Bay to identify environmental characteristics of, and map, suitable habitat. Environmental variables, including depth, substrate, temperature, vegetation, and water quality, were used to predict the species distribution using a machine learning method within a geographic information system. The potential impact of climate change and spread of an invasive reed, Phragmites australis, on Warmouth habitat were also examined. Species distribution modeling identified suitable habitat at Long Point Bay for Warmouth with a high degree of statistical support. However, projections of climate change impacts were varied. If warmer temperatures are considered beneficial to Warmouth, a warmwater species, an expansion of suitable habitat is expected. If Phragmites colonized up to 1 m water depth, Warmouth spawning and nursery habitat would effectively be eliminated."--Abstract, p. iv.

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