000 01922cam  2200337za 4500
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008171221s2017    oncd   #ob   f000 0 eng d
040 |aCaOODSP|beng
041 |aeng|bfre
043 |an-cn---
0861 |aFB3-5/2017-60E-PDF
1001 |aFeunou, Bruno.
24510|aWhich model to forecast the target rate? |h[electronic resource] / |cby Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine and Jianjian Jin.
260 |aOttawa : |bBank of Canada, |c2017.
300 |aii, 40 p. : |bgraphs
4901 |aBank of Canada staff working paper, |x1701-9397 ; |v2017-60
500 |a"December 2017."
504 |aIncludes bibliographical references.
520 |a"Specifications of the Federal Reserve target rate that have more realistic features mitigate in-sample over-fitting and are favored in the data. Imposing a positivity constraint and discrete increments significantly increases the accuracy of model out-of-sample forecasts for the level and volatility of the Federal Reserve target rates. In addition, imposing the constraints produces different estimates of the response coefficients. In particular, a new and simple specification, where the target rate is the maximum between zero and the prediction of an ordered-choice Probit model, is more accurate and has higher response coefficients to information about inflation and unemployment"--Abstract, p. ii.
546 |aText in English, abstract in English and French.
69207|2gccst|aBanks
69207|2gccst|aRates
69207|2gccst|aForecasting
7001 |aJin, Jianjian.
7001 |aFontaine, Jean-Sébastien.
7102 |aBank of Canada.
830#0|aStaff working paper (Bank of Canada)|x1701-9397 ; |v2017-60.|w(CaOODSP)9.806221
85640|qPDF|s600 KB|uhttps://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2017/banque-bank-canada/FB3-5-2017-60-eng.pdf