Modeling fluctuations in the global demand for commodities / by Lutz Kilian and Xiaoqing Zhou. : FB3-5/2018-4E-PDF

“Although this question arises frequently in applied work, there is no universal agreement on how to quantify cyclical variation in global real economic activity. We show how such a measure must be constructed in order to be useful for modeling industrial commodity prices. We compare a wide range of alternative measures discussed in the literature and assess their merits for applied work on commodity prices. Among these indicators, we stress the advantages of the widely used Kilian index of global real economic activity, of indices based on real commodity prices and, to a lesser extent, of proxies for global industrial production"--Non-technical summary, p. 1.

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