Restructuring structured analytic techniques in intelligence / Welton Chang ... [et al.]. : D69-50/2017E-PDF
Structured analytic techniques (SATs) are intended to improve intelligence analysis by checking the two canonical sources of error: systematic biases and random noise. Although both goals are achievable, no one knows how close the current generation of SATs comes to achieving either of them. We identify two root problems: (1) SATs treat bipolar biases as unipolar. As a result, we lack metrics for gauging possible over-shooting—and have no way of knowing when SATs that focus on suppressing one bias (e.g., overconfidence) are triggering the opposing bias (e.g., under-confidence); (2) SATs tacitly assume that problem decomposition (e.g., breaking reasoning into rows and columns of matrices corresponding to hypotheses and evidence) is a sound means of reducing noise in assessments. But no one has ever actually tested whether decomposition is adding or subtracting noise from the analytic process—and there are good reasons for suspecting that decomposition will, on balance, degrade the reliability of analytic judgment. The central shortcoming is that SATs have not been subject to sustained scientific of the sort that could reveal when they are helping or harming the cause of delivering accurate assessments of the world to the policy community
Lien permanent pour cette publication :
publications.gc.ca/pub?id=9.852936&sl=1
Ministère/Organisme | Defence R&D Canada. Toronto Research Centre. |
---|---|
Titre | Restructuring structured analytic techniques in intelligence / Welton Chang ... [et al.]. |
Titre de la série | External literature (P) ; DRDC-RDDC-2017-P113 |
Type de publication | Série - Voir l'enregistrement principal |
Langue | [Anglais] |
Format | Électronique |
Document électronique | |
Note(s) | Cover title. Published in: Intelligence and National Security, 2017. Includes bibliographic references. |
Information sur la publication | [Toronto] : Defence Research and Development Canada, Toronto Research Centre, c2017. |
Auteur / Contributeur | Chang, Welton. |
Description | 1 v. |
Numéro de catalogue |
|
Descripteurs | Security intelligence Research |
Demander des formats alternatifs
Pour demander une publication dans un format alternatif, remplissez le formulaire électronique des publications du gouvernement du Canada. Utilisez le champ du formulaire «question ou commentaire» pour spécifier la publication demandée.- Date de modification :