00000nam 2200000za 4500 9.853672 CaOODSP 20250821075107 cr ||||||||||| 180315s2018 oncd ob f000 0 eng d CaOODSP eng eng fre n-cn--- FB3-7/2018-6E-PDF Duprey, Thibaut. Asymmetric risks to the economic outlook arising from financial system vulnerabilities [electronic resource] / by Thibaut Duprey. [Ottawa] : Bank of Canada, c2018. iii, [9] p. : col. charts. Staff analytical note = Note analytique du personnel, 2369-9639 ; 2018-6 Cover title. Includes bibliographical references. "When financial system vulnerabilities are elevated, they can give rise to asymmetric risks to the economic outlook. To illustrate this, I consider the economic outlook presented in the Bank of Canada’s October 2017 Monetary Policy Report in the context of two key financial system vulnerabilities: high levels of household indebtedness and housing market imbalances. Uncertainty on the profile of consumption by indebted households—and, therefore, risks to growth in gross domestic product (GDP)—arises from higher interest rates and from recent changes to the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions’ B-20 mortgage underwriting guideline. I use non-linear Bayesian techniques to capture the potential amplification of negative shocks in a vulnerable environment. I find that the materialization of larger-than-expected impacts on consumption from higher interest rates and/or the tighter mortgage qualifying criteria would imply asymmetric risks to GDP growth"--Abstract. Includes abstract in French. gccst Finance gccst Monetary policy Economic stabilization Bank of Canada. Staff analytical note (Bank of Canada) 2369-9639 ; 2018-6. (CaOODSP)9.807323 PDF 506 KB https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2018/banque-bank-canada/FB3-7-2018-6-eng.pdf