Projecting household headship : exploration and comparison of formal and behavioural approaches / Thomas K. Burch and Andrejs Skaburskis ; for Research Division, National Office, Canada Mortgage and Housing... : NH15-808/1993E-PDF

"Around the world, the so-called 'headship' rate method remains the chief method for projecting numbers of households in a population. Assumed future headship rates (by age, sex, marital status or other characteristics) are combined with population projections (typically, official projections) by these same characteristics. In Canada, headship rates by age and household type (family/non-family) are a key input, into the CMHC Potential Housing Demand Projection Model. Clearly, the headship rate inputs are crucial to the quality of projections of household numbers by type, and derived projections of housing demand. Typically, future headship rates are assumed to remain constant or are extrapolated from current levels on the basis of some simple formula. This project explored several novel approaches to forecasting headship rates. These are novel in the general sense that they have not been much investigated or used in demographic and other relevant technical literature, and in the specific sense that they have not previously been applied to nationwide projections for Canada"--Background, p. [1].

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