Risk analysis of defence acquisition projects : methods and applications / Abderrahmane Sokri, Ahmed Ghanmi, DRDC – Centre for Operational Research and Analysis ; Prepared for: Center for Costing in Defence,... : D68-2/124-2017E-PDF

"Risk analysis is an integral part of the risk management process for defence acquisitions. It provides a means to examine the impact of individual risks on the overall project objectives to determine the probability of concluding the project on a given budget (cost risk analysis) or on a given time (schedule risk analysis). While there is an extensive literature on risk management for defence acquisition programs, there are limited research studies and critical gaps in cost and schedule risk analysis methodologies and techniques. This Scientific Report synthesizes the work conducted by the authors during the past few years on risk analysis research. It provides a literature overview of analytical methods for project risk analysis, and suggests quantitative methods for analyzing cost risk, schedule risk, and integrated cost/schedule risk of defence acquisition projects. The proposed approach would provide defence leadership with useful indicators about the expected cost contingency and schedule buffer"--Abstract, p. i.

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