Nowcasting Canadian economic activity in an uncertain environment / by Tony Chernis and Rodrigo Sekkel. : FB3-6/2018-9E-PDF
"This paper studies short-term forecasting of Canadian real GDP and its expenditure components using combinations of nowcasts from different models. Starting with a medium-sized data set, we use a suite of common nowcasting tools for quarterly real GDP and its expenditure components. Using a two-step combination procedure, the nowcasts are first combined within model classes and then merged into a single point forecast using simple performance-based weighting methods. We find that no single model clearly dominates over all forecast horizons, subsamples and target variables. This highlights that when operating in an uncertain environment, where the choice of model is not clear, combining forecasts is a prudent strategy"--Abstract, p. ii.
Lien permanent pour cette publication :
publications.gc.ca/pub?id=9.862373&sl=1
| Ministère/Organisme | Bank of Canada. |
|---|---|
| Titre | Nowcasting Canadian economic activity in an uncertain environment / by Tony Chernis and Rodrigo Sekkel. |
| Titre de la série | Bank of Canada staff discussion paper, 1914-0568 ; 2018-9 |
| Type de publication | Série - Voir l'enregistrement principal |
| Langue | [Anglais] |
| Format | Électronique |
| Document électronique | |
| Note(s) | "August 2018." Includes bibliographical references. Includes abstract in French. |
| Information sur la publication | [Ottawa] : Bank of Canada, 2018. |
| Auteur / Contributeur | Chernis, Tony. Sekkel, Rodrigo M. |
| Description | ii, 39 p. : col. charts. |
| Numéro de catalogue |
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| Descripteurs | Gross domestic product Economic forecasting |
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