Characterizing the Canadian financial cycle with frequency filtering approaches / by Andrew Lee-Poy. : FB3-7/2018-34E-PDF

"In this note, I use two multivariate frequency filtering approaches to characterize the Canadian financial cycle by capturing fluctuations in the underlying variables with respect to a long-term trend. The first approach is a dynamically weighted composite, and the second is a stochastic cycle model. Applying the two approaches to Canada yields several findings. First, the Canadian financial cycle is more than twice as long as the business cycle, with an amplitude almost four times greater. Second, the overall Canadian financial cycle is most strongly associated with household credit and house prices. Third, while Canadian house prices are mostly associated with the financial cycle, they are also significantly tied to the business cycle. Lastly, house prices are found to lead the overall financial cycle"--Abstract, p. ii.

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