00000nam 2200000za 4500 9.864133 CaOODSP 20221107161448 cr ||||||||||| 181102s2018 oncd||| ob f000 0 eng d CaOODSP eng eng fre FB3-5/2018-52E-PDF Champagne, Julien. Evaluating the Bank of Canada staff economic projections using a new database of real-time data and forecasts [electronic resource] / by Julien Champagne, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle and Rodrigo Sekkel. [Ottawa] : Bank of Canada, 2018. ii, 60 p. : charts (some col.) Bank of Canada staff working paper, 1701-9397 ; 2018-52 "November 2018." Includes bibliographical references (p. 34-37). "We present a novel database of real-time data and forecasts from the Bank of Canada’s staff economic projections. We then provide a forecast evaluation for GDP growth and CPI inflation since 1982: we compare the staff forecasts with those from commonly used time-series models estimated with real-time data and with forecasts from other professional forecasters and provide standard bias tests. Finally, we study changes in the predictability of the Canadian economy following the announcement of the inflation targeting regime in 1991. Our database is unprecedented outside the United States, and our evidence is particularly interesting, as it includes over 30 years of staff forecasts, two severe recessions and different monetary policy regimes. The database will be made available publicly and updated annually"--Abstract, p. ii. Includes abstract in French. gccst Economic forecasting gccst Statistical analysis gccst Economic analysis Poulin-Bellisle, Guillaume. Sekkel, Rodrigo M. Bank of Canada. Staff working paper (Bank of Canada) 1701-9397 ; 2018-52. (CaOODSP)9.806221 PDF 1.57 MB https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2018/banque-bank-canada/FB3-5-2018-52-eng.pdf