00000nam 2200000zi 4500 9.868542 CaOODSP 20221107162621 a o f000 | cr ||||||||||| 190219t20182018oncd ob f000 0 eng d CaOODSP eng CaOODSP rda eng fre n-cn--- FB3-6/2018-16E-PDF Webley, Taylor, author. Fundamental drivers of existing home sales in Canada / by Taylor Webley. Ottawa, Ontario, Canada : Bank of Canada, 2018. ©2018 1 online resource (iv, 22 pages) : colored charts. text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier Staff discussion paper/Document d'analyse du personnel, 2018-16 1914-0568 ; "December 2018." Includes bibliographical references (page 19). "Existing home sales' share of Canada's economic pie has been rising in recent years, and variation around this trend has resulted in outsized contributions to changes in real gross domestic product (GDP). In this context, we use a cointegration framework to estimate the level of resale activity across the Canadian provinces that is supported by fundamentals--namely, full-time employment, housing affordability and migration flows--to help look through the volatility. The results suggest that, over longer horizons, resales activity and these fundamentals share a stable relationship, although deviations are sometimes persistent. We also find a robust and positive relationship between house price growth and deviations of existing home sales from fundamentals. While predicting quarterly changes in resales remains very difficult, provincial models improve upon national and naïve benchmarks and provide a useful framework for identifying risks to GDP growth that stem directly from the resale market"--Abstract, page iv. Includes abstract in French. gccst Housing gccst Economic trends gccst Economic staitstics Bank of Canada. Staff discussion paper (Bank of Canada) 1914-0568 ; 2018-16. (CaOODSP)9.806273 PDF 902 KB https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2019/banque-bank-canada/FB3-6-2018-16-eng.pdf