Hybrid warfare, deterrence in the Baltics and escalation dominance / Michael L. Roi, DRDC - Centre for Operational Research and Analysis ; prepared for: Chief of Staff Operations (COS Ops), Canadian Joint... : D68-1/121-2018E-PDF

"This Scientific Letter provides a brief overview of the concepts of hybrid warfare, deterrence and escalation dominance as they relate to the Canadian deployment to Latvia as part of the larger NATO Enhanced Forward Presence (EFP) in the Baltic States. It draws on work previously done by the author and includes material produced for Canadian participants in the strategic wargame “TRIVE II” held in the United Kingdom on 27 April 2017. However, recent planning efforts at the Canadian Joint Operations Command (CJOC) have underscored the requirement for further analysis of the concept of hybrid warfare. In particular, the development of an Operational Estimate for the European theatre demonstrated the need to re-examine and clarify the concept of hybrid warfare in light of the continued conceptual confusion in the usage of this term. This conceptual misunderstanding militates against designing appropriate campaign and operational plans in response to Russian operational behaviour and actions. Therefore, in support of ongoing CJOC campaign and operational planning, the following analysis seeks to provide greater conceptual clarity about hybrid warfare as manifested in specific Russian operational approaches, assessing it against the effort to deter Russian aggression in the Baltic region and NATO’s requirement to manage escalation. As the analysis below makes clear, the primary challenge facing NATO and EFP nations is crafting an effective deterrent to the broad range of strategic, operational and tactical activities that fall under the rubric of Russian hybrid warfare while successfully managing the risk of escalation, which has the potential to lead to a more direct, conventional armed conflict in the Baltic States"--Introduction, page 1.

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