00000nam 2200000zi 4500 9.884223 CaOODSP 20221107170815 m o d f cr cn||||||||| 200203t20202020onca ob f000 0 eng d CaOODSP eng rda CaOODSP FB3-5/2020-3E-PDF Duprey, Thibaut, author. Managing GDP tail risk / by Thibaut Duprey and Alexander Ueberfeldt. Ottawa, Ontario, Canada : Bank of Canada = Banque du Canada, 2020. ©2020 1 online resource (63 pages) : illustrations (chiefly colour). text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier Staff working paper = Document de travail du personnel, 1701-9397 ; 2020-3 "Last updated: January 28, 2020." Includes bibliographical references (pages 41-45). "We propose a novel framework to analyze how policy-makers can manage risks to the median projection and risks specific to the tail of gross domestic product (GDP) growth. By combining a quantile regression of GDP growth with a vector autoregression, we show that monetary and macroprudential policy shocks can reduce credit growth and thus GDP tail risk. So policymakers concerned about GDP tail risk would choose a tighter policy stance at the expense of macroeconomic stability. Using Canadian data, we show how our framework can add tail event information to projection models that ignore them and give policy-makers a tool to communicate the trade-offs they face"--Abstract, page 2. Gross domestic product Econometric models. Produit intérieur brut Modèles économétriques. Monetary policy Econometric models. Politique monétaire Modèles économétriques. Bank of Canada. Staff working paper (Bank of Canada) 2020-3. (CaOODSP)9.806221 PDF 1.60 MB https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2020/banque-bank-canada/FB3-5-2020-3-eng.pdf