000	02127nam  2200349zi 4500
001	9.884223
003	CaOODSP
005	20221107170815
006	m     o  d f
007	cr cn|||||||||
008	200203t20202020onca    ob   f000 0 eng d
040	|aCaOODSP|beng|erda|cCaOODSP
086	1 |aFB3-5/2020-3E-PDF
100	1 |aDuprey, Thibaut, |eauthor.
245	10|aManaging GDP tail risk / |cby Thibaut Duprey and Alexander Ueberfeldt.
264	1|aOttawa, Ontario, Canada : |bBank of Canada = Banque du Canada, |c2020.
264	4|c©2020
300	|a1 online resource (63 pages) : |billustrations (chiefly colour).
336	|atext|btxt|2rdacontent
337	|acomputer|bc|2rdamedia
338	|aonline resource|bcr|2rdacarrier
490	1 |aStaff working paper = Document de travail du personnel, |x1701-9397 ; |v2020-3
500	|a"Last updated: January 28, 2020."
504	|aIncludes bibliographical references (pages 41-45).
520	3 |a"We propose a novel framework to analyze how policy-makers can manage risks to the median projection and risks specific to the tail of gross domestic product (GDP) growth. By combining a quantile regression of GDP growth with a vector autoregression, we show that monetary and macroprudential policy shocks can reduce credit growth and thus GDP tail risk. So policymakers concerned about GDP tail risk would choose a tighter policy stance at the expense of macroeconomic stability. Using Canadian data, we show how our framework can add tail event information to projection models that ignore them and give policy-makers a tool to communicate the trade-offs they face"--Abstract, page 2.
650	0|aGross domestic product|xEconometric models.
650	6|aProduit intérieur brut|xModèles économétriques.
650	0|aMonetary policy|xEconometric models.
650	6|aPolitique monétaire|xModèles économétriques.
710	2 |aBank of Canada.
830	#0|aStaff working paper (Bank of Canada)|v2020-3.|w(CaOODSP)9.806221
856	40|qPDF|s1.60 MB|uhttps://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2020/banque-bank-canada/FB3-5-2020-3-eng.pdf