Relative risk of contamination by region during hydrocarbon spills in the Gulf of St. Lawrence / by Denis Lefaivre, Simon St-Onge Drouin, Alain D'Astous and Simon Senneville. : Fs97-18/330E-PDF

"The potential risk associated with hydrocarbon spills is not spatially uniform for all coastlines but can be quantified with modeling. Using annual hindcasts of the oceanographic conditions of the Estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence, the trajectory of particles that mimic a Gulf-wide uniform hydrocarbon spill was computed for the period 2001-2010. The particles were released in the surface layer of a three-dimension circulation model on each grid cell of the model during the ice-free period. The particles drifted from the action of currents and winds for 8 days. The main conclusions are: a) Most of the particles (94%) are still in the Estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence. b) The coastlines are at risk because 41% of the particles ground. c) All coastline of the Estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence are at risk. However, the islands in the Gulf are more exposed as well as the regions to the south and to the east. d) Half of the particles (52%) are still in the water. e) The results are similar from one year to another. Now that the risk for all regions has been assessed, it will be possible to plan ship deployment to aid recovery of spilled hydrocarbons and to design protection schemes for coastlines with higher vulnerabilities"--Abstract, page iv.

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