Projections of future physical and biochemical conditions in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, on the Scotian Shelf and in the Gulf of Maine using a regional climate model / by Diane Lavoie, Nicolas Lambert, Shani... : Fs97-18/334E-PDF

"A regional climate model is used to make projections of future physical and biogeochemical conditions in the Gulf of St. Lawrence (GSL), Scotian Shelf, and Gulf of Maine. The regional climate model is forced with downscaled atmosphere from three Earth System Models (CanESM2, MPI-ESM-LR, and HadGEM-ES) using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. We use the Earth System Model outputs made available in 2013 through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) archive. The regional model was run from 1970 to 2100. Results are presented for sea ice, water temperature, salinity, stratification, nitrate, ammonium, diatoms, flagellates, mesozooplankton, microzooplankton, detrital particulate organic matter, dissolved organic matter, dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity, and calcium carbonate (aragonite and calcite) saturation states. We mapped the changes that occurred between the 2061-2080 period and the 1991-2010 period, provided linear trends of the different environmental variables for specific regions, computed model ensemble statistics, calculated the year when calcium carbonate saturation will reach some critical threshold over the model domain, and identified areas where multiple important changes will occur"--Abstract, page xi.

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