The geography of pandemic containment / by Elisa Giannone, Nuno Paixão and Xinle Pang. : FB3-5/2021-26E-PDF

"How does interconnectedness affect the course of a pandemic? What are the optimal withinand between-state containment policies? We embed a spatial SIR model into a multi-sector quantitative trade model. We calibrate it to US states and the COVID-19 pandemic and find that interconnectedness increases the death toll by 146,200 lives. A local within-state containment policy minimizes welfare losses relative to a national policy or to one that reduces mobility between states. The optimal policy combines local within- and between state restrictions and saves 289,300 lives. This optimal policy induces a peak reduction in mobility of 25.97% that saves approximately 23% more lives. Different timing of policies across states is key to minimizing losses. States like South Carolina might have imposed internal lockdowns too early but travel restrictions too late"--Abstract, page ii.

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