Defining and measuring business exits using monthly data series on business openings and closures / by Bassirou Gueye. : CS11-633/2022-38E-PDF

"This article describes the methodology of measuring exits (or permanent closures) in the monthly estimates of business openings and closures. By linking the payroll deductions file to the Business Register, it is possible to derive a survival model and determine that the average length of time that a business is closed before resuming its activities is six months. In addition, the analysis of closures over six months established that 76.1% became exits as defined by the Longitudinal Employment Analysis Program (LEAP). By combining these two methods and comparing the growth rates of closures of more than six months with the growth rates of exits, the LEAP definition of an exit will be used in the monthly series. Given the lack of timeliness associated with this definition, by performing a regression of the growth rate of the number of exits according to LEAP over the growth rate of closures of more than six months, the percentage change in exits is predicted up to the last month for which closures of more than six months are available"--Abstract, page 5.

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