00000nam 2200000zi 4500 9.918003 CaOODSP 20230104143739 m o d f cr mn||||||||| 221205e20221110onca ob f000 0 eng d CaOODSP eng rda CaOODSP n-cn--- YN5-260/2022E-PDF Risk scenario analysis - November 2022. [Ottawa] : Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer = Bureau du Directeur parlementaire du budget, November 10, 2022. ©2022 1 online resource (12 pages) : illustrations text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier Issued also in French under title: Analyse de scénario de risque - novembre 2022. "RP-2223-020-S_e." Includes bibliographical references. "This report provides a scenario analysis to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal implications of central banks over-tightening monetary policy, which was flagged as a key risk in PBO's October Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO). … In our risk scenario we assess the impacts of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada continuing to rapidly raise their policy interest rates, bringing them to 5.25 per cent (top of the target range) and 5.0 per cent, respectively, in early 2023. In such a scenario, we assume that policy rates will remain elevated at this level through 2023 before the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada begin to lower them in early 2024. In addition to the temporary increase in policy rates (of 100 basis points) above our October EFO levels, we incorporate weaker consumer and business confidence, as well as lower commodity prices resulting from a more severe global economic downturn. We assume that the Government does not introduce or undertake any new measures in response to the economic downturn in our risk scenario"--Summary, page 1. Monetary policy Economic aspects Canada. Inflation targeting Economic aspects Canada. Interest rates Economic aspects Canada. Canada. Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer, issuing body. Analyse de scénario de risque - novembre 2022. (CaOODSP)9.918831 PDF 424 KB https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2023/dpb-pbo/YN5-260-2022-eng.pdf