000 02470nam  2200337zi 4500
0019.918003
003CaOODSP
00520230104143739
006m     o  d f      
007cr mn|||||||||
008221205e20221110onca    ob   f000 0 eng d
040 |aCaOODSP|beng|erda|cCaOODSP
043 |an-cn---
0861 |aYN5-260/2022E-PDF
24500|aRisk scenario analysis - November 2022.
264 1|a[Ottawa] : |bOffice of the Parliamentary Budget Officer = Bureau du Directeur parlementaire du budget, |cNovember 10, 2022.
264 4|c©2022
300 |a1 online resource (12 pages) : |billustrations
336 |atext|btxt|2rdacontent
337 |acomputer|bc|2rdamedia
338 |aonline resource|bcr|2rdacarrier
500 |aIssued also in French under title: Analyse de scénario de risque - novembre 2022.
500 |a"RP-2223-020-S_e."
504 |aIncludes bibliographical references.
520 |a"This report provides a scenario analysis to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal implications of central banks over-tightening monetary policy, which was flagged as a key risk in PBO's October Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO). … In our risk scenario we assess the impacts of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada continuing to rapidly raise their policy interest rates, bringing them to 5.25 per cent (top of the target range) and 5.0 per cent, respectively, in early 2023. In such a scenario, we assume that policy rates will remain elevated at this level through 2023 before the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada begin to lower them in early 2024. In addition to the temporary increase in policy rates (of 100 basis points) above our October EFO levels, we incorporate weaker consumer and business confidence, as well as lower commodity prices resulting from a more severe global economic downturn. We assume that the Government does not introduce or undertake any new measures in response to the economic downturn in our risk scenario"--Summary, page 1.
650 0|aMonetary policy|xEconomic aspects|zCanada.
650 0|aInflation targeting|xEconomic aspects|zCanada.
650 0|aInterest rates|xEconomic aspects|zCanada.
7101 |aCanada. |bOffice of the Parliamentary Budget Officer, |eissuing body.
77508|tAnalyse de scénario de risque - novembre 2022.|w(CaOODSP)9.918831
85640|qPDF|s424 KB|uhttps://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2023/dpb-pbo/YN5-260-2022-eng.pdf