Numerical simulation of tsunami wave heights and currents at the Institute of Ocean Sciences and Pacific Biological Station originating from a magnitude 9.0 Cascadia Subduction Zone megathrust earthquake... : Fs97-18/374E-PDF

"Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) presents a major tsunami treat for the west coast of British Columbia. This study uses a state-of-the-art numerical model to simulate a future tsunamigenic event of magnitude (Mw) 9.0 at the CSZ to determine the wave heights and currents that will impact the marine facilities at the Institute of Ocean Sciences (IOS) in Patricia Bay (North Saanich) and at the Pacific Biological Station (PBS) in Departure Bay (Nanaimo). The model is based on newly available high-resolution bathymetric and topographic data and recently updated earthquake source distributions. The main findings are: (1) The tsunami at Patricia Bay will reach 1.26 m above the tidal level at the time of the wave arrivals and the first wave will be the highest; (2) the tsunami at Departure Bay will reach 0.47 m above the tidal level at the time of the wave arrivals and the second wave will be the highest; and (3) maximum tsunami-induced current speeds will be below 0.2 m/s (0.4 knots) at both sites. The land subsidence of 13 cm in Patricia Bay and 10 cm in Departure Bay that will occur at the time of the earthquake will increase the flooding effect of the waves. Based on the model results, we find that a CSZ tsunami presents a moderate flooding risk for Patricia Bay but a considerably lower flooding risk for Departure Bay. The tsunami hazard will increase markedly for global sea level rise conditions predicted to be up to 2 metres by year 2100"--Abstract, page iv.

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publications.gc.ca/pub?id=9.932556&sl=1

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