Examination of the performance of 22 CMIP6 ESMs on large scale changes in the atmosphere and oceans (North Atlantic, Arctic and North Pacific) / by Zeliang Wang, Brendan DeTracey, Blair Greenan, David... : Fs97-18/376E-PDF

"This study examines the performance of 22 CMIP6 models. Sea level pressure and 2m air temperature of the atmosphere component are compared with those from a reanalysis product. Sea surface temperature and sea ice from an observation-based ocean product are used to investigate the performance of the ocean component in these models. This study finds that the performance varies substantially between models and also between variables within one model. In general, these models do not represent sea level pressure well which is strongly related to the atmospheric circulation (winds), however, they well represent the 2m air temperature in terms of its long-term warming tendency over the historic time period. The multi-decadal variations of the sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic Ocean are captured by the majority of the models, however, they mostly fail to represent the dominant changes in the sea surface temperature in the North Pacific Ocean. This study suggests that the North Atlantic Ocean appears to be more predictable than the North Pacific Ocean. The declining trend in the summer Arctic ice area is reproduced, and some models have trends close to the observations. UKESM1-0-LL, CNRM-ESM2-1 and CESM2 are the three models with overall good performances for atmosphere, ocean and ice components"--Abstract, page iv.

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