The evaluation of rainfall probability forecasts for forestry / by J.A. Turner. : En57-56/290-1959E-PDF

"Forecasts of the probability of occurrence of measurable rainfall occurring during the balance of the same day and during the following day were issued daily for eleven stations in British Columbia during the 1958 fire-season as part of an expanded program of fire weather forecasting by the staff of the Vancouver Public Weather Office. These forecasts have been evaluated in much the same way a similar program at San Francisco was assessed by Root. There is evidence of significant skill in assigning probabilities except possibly in the central third of the probability range"--Abstract, page [1].

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