Forecasting of GIC indices for Canadian power utilities / L. Trichtchenko and L. Nikitina. : M183-2/8856E-PDF

"This report presents a novel method for the forecasting geoelectric field and GIC values. This research was done as part of a project together with Manitoba Hydro. Two slightly different approaches are presented, such as: 1) based on the statistical pattern of the mean daily variations of the geomagnetic field hourly index, and 2) based on the statistical pattern of the mean daily variations of the geoelectric field hourly index. The variations are averaged over many years of geomagnetic observation, and to include seasonal variations, the diurnal curves were obtained separately for each month. The capabilities for the GIC forecast (hourly maximum indices of GIC) were demonstrated for a benchmark power grid, but can be extended for any power grid configuration, provided there are geomagnetic observatories with real-time data provision near the location of the power grid. Further evaluation, validation and testing will be required before operational use of the developed methods"--Summary, page 26.

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