00000000cam 2200000zi 4500
0019.957257
003CaOODSP
00520251112103438
006m     o  d f      
007cr cn|||||||||
008251112t20252025onca    ob   f000 0 eng d
040 |aCaOODSP|beng|erda|cCaOODSP
0410 |aeng|beng|bfre
043 |an-us---
0861 |aFB3-5/2025-27E-PDF
1001 |aAmodeo, Francesco, |eauthor.
24510|aHigh-frequency cross-sectional identification of military news shocks / |cFrancesco Amodeo, Edoardo Briganti.
264 1|a[Ottawa] : |bBank of Canada = Banque du Canada, |c2025.
264 4|c©2025
300 |a1 online resource (ii, 57 pages) : |bcolour illustrations.
336 |atext|btxt|2rdacontent
337 |acomputer|bc|2rdamedia
338 |aonline resource|bcr|2rdacarrier
4901 |aStaff working paper = Document de travail du personnel, |y1701-9397 ; |v2025-27
500 |aISSN assigned to different series.
500 |a"Last updated: October 31, 2025."
504 |aIncludes bibliographical references (pages 54-57).
5203 |a"This study develops a two-step procedure to identify and quantify fiscal news shocks. First, we augment a narrative identification strategy using large language model searches to compile events (2001-2023) that altered the expected path of U.S. defense expenditure. Second, for each event, we estimate market-implied shifts in expected defense spending with cross-sectional regressions of contractors' stock returns on their reliance on military revenues. We show that this approach statistically validates each event; quantifies each shock in an intuitive, model-consistent fashion; and readily generalizes to other macroeconomic contexts. Employing the estimated shocks in a shift-share analysis yields a two-year, metropolitan statistical area-level GDP multiplier of approximately 1 for U.S. military build-ups"--Abstract, page ii.
546 |aIncludes abstracts in English and French.
61010|aUnited States. |bDepartment of Defense|xAppropriations and expenditures|xEconometric models.
61016|aÉtats-Unis. |bDepartment of Defense|xCrédits budgétaires et dépenses|xModèles économétriques.
650 0|aFiscal policy|xEconometric models.
650 0|aBusiness cycles|xEconometric models.
650 6|aPolitique fiscale|xModèles économétriques.
650 6|aCycles économiques|xModèles économétriques.
7102 |aBank of Canada, |eissuing body.
830#0|aStaff working paper (Bank of Canada)|v2025-27.|w(CaOODSP)9.806221
85640|qPDF|s3.91 MB|uhttps://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2025/banque-bank-canada/FB3-5-2025-27-eng.pdf