00000cam 2200000zi 4500 9.957258 CaOODSP 20251112101101 m o d f cr cn||||||||| 251112t20252025onca ob f000 0 eng d CaOODSP eng rda CaOODSP eng eng fre n-cn--- FB3-5/2025-28E-PDF Moran, Kevin, 1966- author. Risk scenarios and macroeconomic forecasts / Kevin Moran, Stéphane Surprenant, Dalibor Stevanovic. [Ottawa] : Bank of Canada = Banque du Canada, 2025. ©2025 1 online resource (i, 31 pages) : colour illustrations. text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier Staff working paper = Document de travail du personnel, 1701-9397 ; 2025-28 ISSN assigned to different series. "Last updated: October 31, 2025." Includes bibliographical references (pages 30-31). "This paper discusses the usefulness of risk scenarios—forecasts conditional on specific future paths for economic variables and shocks—for monitoring the Canadian economy. To do so, we use a vector autoregressive (VAR) approach to produce macroeconomic forecasts conditional on four risk scenarios: high oil prices, a US recession, a tight labor market, and a restrictive monetary policy. The results show that these scenarios represent significant risk factors for the evolution of the Canadian economy. In particular, the high-oil-price scenario is beneficial for the Canadian economy, while a US recession induces a significant slowdown. The very tight labor market scenario leads to additional price increases relative to an unconditional forecast, and the restrictive monetary policy scenario increases the unemployment rate while lowering the inflation rate slightly"--Abstract, page i. Includes abstracts in English and French. Economic forecasting Canada Econometric models. Risk Canada Econometric models. Prévision économique Canada Modèles économétriques. Risque Canada Modèles économétriques. Bank of Canada, issuing body. Staff working paper (Bank of Canada) 2025-28. (CaOODSP)9.806221 PDF 953 KB https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2025/banque-bank-canada/FB3-5-2025-28-eng.pdf