00000cam 2200000zi 4500 9.957269 CaOODSP 20251113071204 m o d f cr mn||||||||| 251112t20252025onca ob f000 0 eng d CaOODSP eng rda CaOODSP eng eng fre FB3-5/2025-31E-PDF Hou, Chenyu, author. Uncovering subjective models from survey expectations / Chenyu Hou, Tao Wang. [Ottawa] : Bank of Canada = Banque du Canada, 2025. ©2025 1 online resource (ii, 73 pages) : illustrations (chiefly colour). text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier Staff working paper = Document de travail du personnel, 1701-9397 ; 2025-31 ISSN assigned to different series. "Last updated: November 6, 2025." Includes bibliographical references (pages 38-43). "Households may perceive that macroeconomic variables move together in a different way from that implied by their actual realizations and sophisticated models. We use a structural test derived from a multivariate noisy-information framework and additional evidence from survey data and newspaper narratives to show that information friction alone cannot explain households' tendency to associate higher future inflation with a worse labor market outlook. We also show that the subjective model empirically uncovered from survey data implies amplified output responses to supply shocks, but dampened output and price responses to demand shocks"--Abstract, page ii. Includes abstracts in English and French. Consumers Attitudes Econometric models. Inflation (Finance) Econometric models. Labor market Econometric models. Consommateurs Attitudes Modèles économétriques. Inflation Modèles économétriques. Marché du travail Modèles économétriques. Bank of Canada, issuing body. Staff working paper (Bank of Canada) 2025-31. (CaOODSP)9.806221 PDF 3.13 MB https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2025/banque-bank-canada/FB3-5-2025-31-eng.pdf