Assessment and redevelopment of visual survey expansion factors and a summary of current interpolation methods for Fraser River sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) spawner estimates / Michael Arbeider, Brian... : Fs97-6/3767E-PDF

"This report introduces a methodical approach to select system-characteristic-specific expansion methods, using a paired-estimates database (n=162) and ranking models’ performance. The updated approach reduced bias (mean-percent-error) from -13.3% to -0.5% and improved accuracy (mean-absolute-percent-error) from 30.2% to 24.5%. Precision of estimates was overestimated. Standardized application rules to account for caveats within the framework were developed from test application to the 2024 data. Alternative approaches or adjustments may be required when systems exceed the characteristics represented in the database or where the system characteristics consistently resulted in bias or low accuracy"--Abstract, page v.

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