Consumers' path to mortgage delinquency / Laura Zhao, Jia Qi Xiao, Aidan Witts. : FB3-8/2026-3E-PDF

"This paper examines the behavioural patterns of Canadian borrowers as they progress toward mortgage delinquency. Using the full universe of TransUnion Canada borrower credit data from 2015 to 2024, we document that mortgage holders begin increasing their credit utilization roughly two years before their first mortgage delinquency. One or two years prior to becoming late on their mortgage, households frequently being missing payments on various consumer credit products, particularly credit cards. These patterns accelerates sharply in the final six months leading up to mortgage delinquency. These empirical patterns provide a consistent and robust set of early warning signals that can be used to monitor emerging household financial stress"--Abstract, page ii.

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