Review of run size estimates for the Nass River system : chinook, sockeye, and coho salmon, and summer-run steelhead : part 2 - Bayesian capture-recapture model / Carl James Schwarz, Richard Alexander,... : Fs97-6/3774E-PDF

"This is the second part of a review of the capture-recapture methodology used to estimate abundance of Chinook, Coho, and Sockeye salmon and summer-run steelhead on the Nass River, British Columbia... The Bayesian model is described in general terms (and mathematically in the Appendix). It is applied to the 2021 data and the results are compared to the estimates computed using the current methods. Point estimates of the run sizes were very similar but as expected, estimates of uncertainty were slightly larger from the Bayesian model for Chinook, Coho, and steelhead run size estimates and substantially larger for estimates of run size for Sockeye Salmon. Hindcasts back to 1999 showed the same pattern. Further, sex-, length- and time-stratified and unstratified estimates show little difference when realistic uncertainty is incorporated"--Abstract, page ix.

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