Projected changes in the atmospheric system over the Northern Hemisphere and in the North Atlantic, Arctic and North Pacific Oceans from 22 CMIP6 ESMS / by Zeliang Wang, Brendan DeTracey, Blair Greenan,... : Fs97-18/419E-PDF

"Four climate scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways [SSPs]) for the 2015-2059 period, SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585, were analyzed to investigate changes in the atmospheric system over the northern hemisphere, and changes in the North Atlantic, Arctic, and North Pacific Oceans. Ensemble analysis of the sea level pressure over the northern hemisphere suggested that the NPO (North Pacific Oscillation) increased its variability from SSP126 to SSP585. No clear pattern can be drawn for the NAO/AO (North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation), although they showed stronger variability in the four scenarios than in the historical period (1955-2014). Near-surface air temperature over the northern hemisphere had dominant warming trends, except for the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean, and its variability increased from SSP126 to SSP585 with increasing warming trends. The North Atlantic Ocean from the low to mid-latitudes had dominant warming trends in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in all the four scenarios, and the warming trends increase from SSP126 to SSP585. The subpolar region had a cooling trend which decreased from SSP126 to SSP585. The whole North Pacific Ocean had warming trends in SST, and the warming trends increased from SSP126 to SSP585. Ensemble analysis of the declining summer sea ice trends suggested the earliest year of the summer ice-free Arctic Ocean was 2046 under scenario SSP585"--Abstract, page iv.

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