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040 |aCaOODSP|beng|erda|cCaOODSP
0861 |aFB3-5/2026-12E-PDF
1001 |aAntonova, Anastasiia, |eauthor.
24510|aSupply shocks in the fog : |bthe role of endogenous uncertainty / |cAnastasiia Antonova, Mykhailo Matvieiev, Céline Poilly.
264 1|a[Ottawa] : |bBank of Canada = Banque du Canada, |c2026.
264 4|c©2026
300 |a1 online resource (41 pages) : |bcolour illustrations.
336 |atext|btxt|2rdacontent
337 |acomputer|bc|2rdamedia
338 |aonline resource|bcr|2rdacarrier
4901 |aStaff working paper = Document de travail du personnel, |y1701-9397 ; |v2026-12
500 |aIncorrect ISSN (1701-9397) printed in this publication.
500 |a"Last updated: April 10, 2026."
504 |aIncludes bibliographical references (pages 26-29).
5203 |a"Recessions are often accompanied by heightened uncertainty. We build an imperfect-information New Keynesian model in which procyclical information quality generates endogenous countercyclical uncertainty, and the nonlinear structure allows for a precautionary saving motive. We show theoretically that endogenous uncertainty operates entirely through aggregate demand. For negative supply shocks, the induced rise in uncertainty can depress demand enough to dominate the shock's inflationary force, turning the shock deflationary. Monetary policy can fully eliminate the adverse effect of endogenous uncertainty by stabilizing the output gap. We quantify the endogenous uncertainty channel in the US data and find it to be strong enough to generate deflation in response to negative supply shocks"--Abstract.
650 0|aUncertainty|xEconometric models.
650 0|aBusiness cycles|xEconometric models.
650 0|aMonetary policy|xEconometric models.
650 6|aIncertitude|xModèles économétriques.
650 6|aCycles économiques|xModèles économétriques.
650 6|aPolitique monétaire|xModèles économétriques.
7102 |aBank of Canada, |eissuing body.
830#0|aStaff working paper (Bank of Canada)|v2026-12.|w(CaOODSP)9.806221
85640|qPDF|s1.38 MB|uhttps://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2026/banque-bank-canada/FB3-5-2026-12-eng.pdf