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BP-398E
INTERNATIONAL HUMANITARIAN
RESPONSES
TO CRISES AND CONFLICTS:
CURRENT CHALLENGES
Prepared by:
Gerald Schmitz
Political and Social Affairs Division
January 1995
TABLE
OF CONTENTS
INTERVENTION
AND HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE
IN THE CONTEXT OF THE 1990s
HUMANITARIAN
EMERGENCY AND PEACE OPERATIONS: THE SEARCH FOR
APPROPRIATE AND BETTER RESPONSES
A.
The Role of the United Nations
B.
The Role of Other Multilateral Organizations
C.
Post-Cold-War Humanitarian Roles: From "Peacekeeping"
to "Peacemaking"?
D.
Civilian Roles and Non-Military Responses to Humanitarian Crises
CANADIAN
PERSPECTIVES ON HUMANITARIAN INTERVENTION
INTERNATIONAL HUMANITARIAN
RESPONSES TO
CRISES AND CONFLICTS: CURRENT CHALLENGES
INTERVENTION
AND HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE
IN THE CONTEXT OF THE 1990s
Responding to wars and disasters,
whether natural or man-made, is certainly not a new element of international
relations. The need to mobilize international efforts on behalf of the
victims of conflicts and humanitarian emergencies has led to the creation
of respected impartial relief organizations such as the International
Committee of the Red Cross. Since the end of the Second World War, nation-states
have also become increasingly involved in issues of international humanitarian
assistance--through their membership in the United Nations and other multilateral
organizations, and through adherence to a developing system of international
humanitarian law and practice (notably codified in the Geneva conventions
and protocols).
This system is no doubt
highly imperfect. Millions of people have continued to die in tragedies
that many consider to be preventable. Natural disasters, such as the Ethiopian
famine of the mid-1980s, are often compounded by, or even linked causally
to, political and civil conflicts. In such cases, there is no substitute
for war prevention and sustainable development strategies if similar emergencies
are not to recur. Nevertheless, even in the worst situations, short-term
relief operations have sometimes been successful in saving many lives.
In the post-Cold War era,
there were initial hopes that the relaxation of East-West tensions would
produce a "dividend" that could be applied to peaceful purposes.
While world military expenditures have been declining overall, there continue
to be regional arms races. And the sums spent on armaments are still many
times the amounts devoted to international development assistance. Indeed,
spending on global aid has dropped significantly since 1993, and a rising
proportion of it has gone towards emergency humanitarian relief--in itself
a worrisome sign that the world is not becoming a more peaceful or orderly
place. Indeed a number of recent books and essays forecast an international
arena that will be increasingly conflictive and unruly, divided over issues
of resources and economic disparity, the environment, ethno-nationalism,
minority rights, movements of peoples, etc.(1)
The strengthened role of
the UN post-1989, manifested by its precedent-setting intervention to
protect Kurdish civilians in northern Iraq in the aftermath of the 1991
Gulf War, had also raised hopes that the international community might
henceforth intervene more forcefully, including when necessary in the
"internal affairs" of a member state, in order to offer humanitarian
protection to people in imminent danger as a result of a calamitous event.
However, the rapid escalation since then in the number, scale and scope
of such humanitarian interventions has produced some sobering, even disastrous,
experiences. No one looking at the recent record of responses in Bosnia,
Somalia, and Rwanda--to take only three obvious examples--can feel very
confident about the outcome of these hugely complicated and troubled interventions.
Early in 1995 there is arguably
a greater need than ever for more concerted and better coordinated international
humanitarian missions. One analyst has observed that one out of 130 persons
on the planet has now been displaced by wars,(2)
the vast majority of which are civil, not classical inter-state aggressions.
Fully 89 of 92 major conflicts (those producing over 1,000 deaths) since
1989 fall into the former category. In some cases the civil disorder is
so severe that there is effectively no functioning "sovereign"
governmental authority, leading to the phenomenon of "failed states."
Vast refugee flows may also destabilize neighbouring countries and disrupt
wider peace and security. Increasingly, there have been appeals to international
authority, principally the UN, for help in situations where neither consent
of the parties nor neutrality in the traditional sense of "peacekeeping"
may be possible to establish.
There has been an explosion
of peace operations under UN auspices; 17 are currently ongoing, compared
to only 13 in the first four decades of this activity. Several of the
most controversial and costly of these operations are in response to combined
security and humanitarian crises of immense proportions. To the extent
that funding and contributions from UN members can be cobbled together,
such missions mix political, military and civilian roles, creating a new
phenomenon in which "peacemaking" is brought together with emergency
humanitarian relief operations. The resulting improvisations, trial and
error, have put enormous strains on an antiquated system already overdue
for reform. Even if the financial and structural problems of the UN could
be resolved, it will never be an easy task to achieve coordination among
more than a dozen UN agencies, regional organizations, individual donor
governments and their military establishments, not to mention the thousands
of non-governmental organizations involved on the ground.
Beyond the practical difficulties
of sustaining large-scale operations in a number of places, vigorous debate
continues on the fundamental question of whether limits ought to be placed
around the new imperatives of humanitarian intervention. Notwithstanding
that nation-state sovereignty is losing ground as a shield against such
interventions to aid victims of disasters, some argue that it is not wise
or realistic to move too far in the other direction of advocating "a
new humanitarian order in which governments are held--by force, if necessary--
to higher standards of respect for human life."(3)
Some find the concept of "armed humanitarianism"--the use of
military forces to protect the delivery of humanitarian assistance and
to defend human life and human rights--to be an oxymoron or at least a
potentially dangerous paradox.
Many relief agencies are
uncomfortable with the implications of "enforcement" actions.
For example, in Somalia, the blurring of political-military and humanitarian
operations resulted in the loss of local legitimacy, severely hampering
subsequent international NGO efforts.(4)
It is also argued that much more attention should be focused on early
non-military means of intervening before crises turn into catastrophes
and conflicts escalate out of control.
However, setting criteria
for early "soft" interventions in order to prevent disasters
is not likely to be a simple matter, especially given the growing range
of situations that could call for such attention today and the budgetary
pressures on parliaments and governments around the world. It is no doubt
apparent in hindsight, as a new Worldwatch Institute study calculates,
that successful prevention will be much less costly all round, and certainly
in the long run, than the bill for cleaning up a humanitarian disaster.(5)
Unfortunately, national and international decisionmaking are seldom able
to be so farsighted. Moreover, when prevention strategies fail, for whatever
reasons, the international community will again be faced with a familiar
host of questions surrounding the determination of its response to the
newest disaster: authorization and mandates; finances; what kinds of contributions
and from whom; command and control structures; size and duration of missions;
coordination issues, etc.
Recently, a number of governments
(including Canada), and indeed the UN Security Council itself, have given
increased consideration to the application of stricter, more selective
conditions to future international interventions. There can be no question
of reverting to a bygone era of bipolar stalemate and "non-intervention"
(which in fact meant in practice that intervention was left to big powers
operating in "spheres of influence"). The current argument for
limits is that international commitments must be deliberate and credible
in order to be made effective. In setting criteria for humanitarian interventions,
however, scholar Robert Jackson cautions that in international relations:
"what the most responsible choice would be in any particular case
is not something that can be determined in principle or in advance. ...
International ethics are always situational, and most international situations
are difficult to assess."(6)
In other words, we should not expect any "planners' dream" set
of conditions to emerge that could predetermine the ideal international
response to the next humanitarian emergency.
Another challenge facing
international humanitarian assistance is that tragedies such as the Rwandan
genocide have demonstrated the severe limitations of existing response
mechanisms and relief practices when confronted with a situation of this
magnitude and perversity. Dr. John Watson, head of CARE (Canada), one
of the largest humanitarian relief NGOs, has bluntly observed: "Forty
years of experience in all corners of the world in the worst imaginable
conditions did not prepare us for the Rwandan disaster."(7)
While mounting a rapid relief
operation for over a million refugees was "technically very impressive,"
the grim realities of the planned genocide and its aftermath repeatedly
defied the best intentions of the different components of the international
response. For example, it is usually argued that humanitarian relief should
be strictly neutral; problems arise when it gets mixed up with more aggressive
UN "peacemaking" actions.(8)
But in Rwanda, relief agencies were severely criticized by human rights
organizations for giving sanctuary and resources to genocidal killers.
As Africa Rights put it: "Seeking justice for human rights abuses
is not compatible with mounting `neutral' aid programs under the authority
of those responsible for committing the human rights abuses."(9)
This is just one of numerous
examples where the hard lessons of recent experience are confounding previous
assumptions and practices. Watson's unsparing conclusion from the field
is that:
... the entire apparatus
of humanitarian intervention in places like Rwanda, Somalia and
Bosnia requires a radical rethink.
On every level of
management--international, national and non-governmental--old habits,
procedures and attitudes must give way.
There will be more
Somalias, Rwandas and Bosnias. The tasks at hand are not insurmountable.
They do require the international community to develop new and creative
ways of dealing with the unique post-Cold War contexts where there
is no functioning state.(10)
HUMANITARIAN
EMERGENCY AND PEACE OPERATIONS:
THE SEARCH FOR APPROPRIATE AND BETTER RESPONSES
A.
The Role of the United Nations
The first half of the 1990s
has been the most extraordinary period of expanding UN activities in the
history of the organization. But the new opportunities have come with
a price in terms of onerous costs and sometimes cruel consequences. In
1995, in its fiftieth anniversary year, the 185-member world body is at
another critical juncture.
In the wake of the breakthrough
humanitarian intervention following the UN-sanctioned war against Iraq,
and other complex interventions in Cambodia and El Salvador in 1991, the
new Secretary General, Boutros Boutros-Ghali, in June 1992 produced a
report, Agenda for Peace, to the Security Council, outlining an
ambitious program for UN involvement across a broad spectrum of conflict
resolution and "preventive diplomacy" measures. According to
this vision, a renewed and reformed UN would be endowed with greatly enhanced
emergency response capabilities: military as well as civilian. But early
in 1995, this complex agenda, and the actual performance of UN roles,
are being subjected to much sober second thought, some of it very critical
indeed, within as well as outside the institution. Boutros-Ghali's update
of Agenda for Peace, presented on 6 January, repeated the call
for a "rapid-reaction force" under UN command. However, in an
atmosphere of retrenchment and lack of consensus, a planned summit of
the Security Council has been indefinitely postponed.(11)
While reassessment seems
in order, it is unlikely that the UN can pull back from the realities
of humanitarian crises in today's world. It must try to act or risk the
charge of irrelevant impotence. International legal and human rights scholars
argue that what is essentially "domestic" as separate from "international"
jurisdiction has shrunk considerably since the UN Charter was put in place.
Combined with the humanitarian imperatives, the result is inevitably that
the UN will be drawn into higher-risk situations. First in Somalia, then
Bosnia, the Security Council authorized the use of its strongest measures--the
use of force ("all necessary means") under Chapter 7 of the
Charter--to safeguard the delivery of humanitarian relief within the boundaries
of a state. Under these exceptional conditions, it is not surprising that
the record to date has been very mixed and often ambiguous. As described
by Thomas Weiss:
Recent UN operations
are typically far larger and more dangerous than previous undertakings.
They are often carried out in countries in the throes of internal
conflicts, which is not what the UN's founders intended. Nor has
previous UN involvement in such conflicts been among its most successful
ventures. In addition, recent UN efforts have been distinguished
by their comprehensive nature. Increasingly, the organization deploys
"multifunctional" or, perhaps more accurately, "messy"
operations that combine military, civil administration (including
election monitoring and police support), and humanitarian expertise
with political negotiations and mediation.(12)
Dealing with the chronic
problems of patched-together and usually underfunded UN operations is
a long-term task. Since 1991, considerable efforts have been directed
to streamlining and strengthening humanitarian emergency capacities. The
post of Under Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs was established,
heading a revamped 150-person Department of Humanitarian Affairs (DHA)
within the UN Secretariat, with a mandate from the General Assembly for
"coordinating and facilitating" emergency responses and a US$50
million revolving fund for rapid first action in emergencies. The DHA
is still a fledgling instrument of humanitarian diplomacy. It has been
struggling to bring more coherence to the international community's responses
to major crises and disasters. But it does not have the power to direct
or command operations. The first UN humanitarian "maestro,"
Jan Eliasson, stepped down in early 1994 in some frustration at the slow
pace of progress in overcoming bureaucratic turf issues and establishing
an efficient partnership in which all parts of the UN's responsive systems
can work with other humanitarian actors.(13)
Sweeping reform proposals
to consolidate, and in effect centralize, humanitarian functions and operations,
are likely to be resisted. However, a recent detailed examination of the
Rwandan response done for the Canadian government, suggests more modest
innovations to improve overall response capabilities. Commenting on the
lead role of the UN High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR), the paper applauds
the development of relief "service packages" (e.g. providing
clean water, air traffic functions) which can then be taken up by a particular
country or organization. It also observes the benefits of having military
personnel seconded to the humanitarian operation. But the study does not
minimize the problems of relief camps harbouring human rights abusers,
or the restriction whereby the UNHCR's mandate prevents it from extending
help to internally displaced persons. Organizationally, moreover, it is
clear that such established UN agencies will dwarf whatever role the Secretariat's
DHA can have on the ground. The author therefore recommends against creating
DHA field unit capacities in competition with the existing humanitarian
aid system:
Rather what is needed
is the ability of a handful of extremely knowledgeable individuals
to deploy to the field within days of the crisis with the aim of
pulling out almost completely as soon as they hand over activities
to appropriate program delivery organizations from either the UN,
governmental, or non-governmental sectors. Only in this way will
those latter organizations see DHA as non-threatening and with a
limited agenda to fear.(14)
More generally, however,
it is also clear that piecemeal and ad hoc improvisations are not a sufficient
response, notably in cataclysmic cases like Rwanda where the traditional
aid and peacekeeping approaches failed the test, even if there were some
humanitarian successes in the appalling aftermath of the genocide. If
there is not a central crisis-response and disaster- relief command structure
operating from UN headquarters, there is at least the need to strengthen
the more limited coordination and forward planning functions of the Department
of Humanitarian Affairs and to move towards having more specialized units
available on standby at UN request for short-notice interventions.
B.
The Role of Other Multilateral Organizations
The United Nations is the
preeminent but not the only international organization involved in emergency
and peace operations of a humanitarian nature. Chapter 8 of the UN Charter
explicitly provides a role for regional bodies in helping to maintain
international peace and security. Agenda for Peace recognized their
potential contribution, although it added little beyond the existing limited
and checkered practice of regionally based interventions.(15)
More recently, the issues associated with forcible humanitarian
interventions have raised the stakes, as in the case of NATO's putative
role in enforcing "safe havens" in Bosnia under the UN mandate.
Within a "decentralized" crisis-response scenario, the credibility
of both the UN and the multilateral organization in question is more than
ever on the line.
Under international law
it is clear that the escalation of humanitarian assistance to include
enforcement actions must be explicitly authorized by the Security Council.(16)
What is not so clear is whether regional or sub-UN bodies can effectively
assume greater responsibilities on the ground, thereby lifting some of
the operational burden from an overstretched UN. One cautiously pragmatic
view is that "they are less substitutes for than complements to the
organization [UN]. Most regional institutions have virtually no military
experience or resources. They normally also contain hegemons whose presence
makes legitimate intervention in civil wars problematic."(17)
The latter point applies even more to authorizations for actions led by
a superpower: see particularly the tensions that surfaced between the
United States and the UN in the Somalia and Haiti interventions.
There is some experience
to suggest that, although the resources of large countries and military
establishments may have to be enlisted once the worst case has happened,
regional groupings of smaller countries might be able to avoid such a
high-intensity resort if they were able to intervene early on through
diplomatic and other conflict prevention initiatives. It may be that the
relative success of the UN missions in Central America and Cambodia can
be explained in part by the active preparatory presence of regional actors
and multilateral support groups. From this emerges an alternative to a
top-down response system that calls for further exploration:
The conventional wisdom
is for the Security Council to make political decisions on behalf
of the international community and then subcontract downward to
a regional institution like NATO--as in the case of the former Yugoslavia--for
its support services. Cambodia and El Salvador suggest the plausibility
of a different model, namely, the regional institution ensures agreement
among the parties and then subcontracts upward to the UN for its
military, civil administration, and humanitarian services.(18)
C.
Post-Cold-War Humanitarian Roles: from "Peacekeeping" to "Peacemaking"?
Historically, "peacekeeping"
was a partly Canadian-inspired improvisation that took root in the 1950s
when the Cold War stalemate rendered inoperative Article 43 of the UN
Charter which had envisaged the UN as having a military conflict-response
capability of its own. Such peacekeeping operations were generally small-scale;
their principal purpose being the supervision of interstate cease-fires
between sovereign member-state belligerents. This was a contained sphere
of activity, almost entirely distinct from humanitarian or emergency relief
operations.
In the post-Cold-War era,
the context of international intervention has changed radically, although
the idea of a permanent UN "rapid deployment" military force,
or even standby forces under the command of the Secretary General, remains
controversial and far from realization. The classical doctrine of the
conditions necessary for successful peacekeeping missions -- a clear mandate
accepted by the parties in conflict; cooperation of parties with peacekeepers
in the field; adequate resources supplied by UN member states -- seldom
holds in the new situations facing the international community. As the
UN's top official in this area has observed, "on any particular day
only a minority of the actual or potential conflicts in the world fulfil
those conditions."
From simple peacekeeping
has evolved a wide range of increasingly complex and multifaceted "peace
operations."(19) More
particularly for the purposes of this discussion, included under the current
peacekeeping umbrella are many elements of emergency humanitarian assistance,
relief and reconstruction, even while conflicts are still ongoing -- as
can be seen from the following list of the expanding variety of UN responsive
activities:
-
Monitoring and even
running elections, as in Namibia, El Salvador, Angola, Cambodia
and Mozambique;
-
Protecting inhabitants
of a region, whether the majority or minorities, from the threat
or use of force - including that of the government of the region
and/or country. (...)
-
Protecting designated
"safe areas," such as certain towns in Bosnia, from attack;
-
Ensuring the partial
demilitarisation of particular areas, such as around Sarajevo and
Gorazde in Bosnia;
-
Guarding the weapons
surrendered by or taken from the parties to a conflict;
-
Assuring the delivery
of humanitarian relief supplies and the performance of a wide range
of other humanitarian tasks during conflicts, especially in the
former Yugoslavia and Somalia;
-
Assisting in the reconstruction
of governmental or police functions after a civil war, including
in El Salvador and Cambodia [now Haiti]; and
-
Reporting violations
of the laws of armed conflict (international humanitarian law) by
belligerents.(20)
The money spent on peacekeeping
(US$ 8.3 billion from 1948-1992, most of that since 1988) of course pales
in comparison with vast global military expenditures, estimated at $30
trillion, over the same period. In that sense preventive response seems
cheap. Nevertheless, there are deepening doubts about whether continuing
the escalation in the size, intensity and cost of military/humanitarian
peace-keeping (-making; -building; -enforcement) is a sustainable proposition
for the international community.(21)
In place of the doctrine of "assertive multilateralism" that
emerged several years ago are attempts to re-establish limits to operational
commitments. In early May 1994, a Security Council presidential statement
"listed six factors that must be taken into account when the establishment
of a new operation is under consideration." That was followed within
days by the U.S. government's Presidential Decision Directive (PDD) 25,
which imposed a number of conditions relating to selectivity and effectiveness
that must be met before there can be U.S. support for multilateral peace
operations.(22)
Critics argue that these
reservations were an unfortunate factor in the delayed and inadequate
international response to the Rwandan tragedy(23),
and that such paper criteria cannot turn back the fundamentally altered
circumstances in which peacekeepers, however defined, will increasingly
find themselves "interposed within active wars, protecting humanitarian
relief columns, providing shelter and protection to trapped civilian refugees,
caring for the sick and wounded from the war zones."(24)
The world of future humanitarian
emergencies will not likely conform to the conditions laid down by politicians,
planners or auditors. Yet there are many legitimate concerns about the
militarisation of humanitarian interventions, about human rights becoming
a "lost agenda" within integrated military-political operations,
and about too much attention to late high-cost "cures" and not
enough to improving early warning systems and response mechanisms for
the timely deployment of fact-finding, diplomatic, and other conflict-avoiding
interventions. Above all, opinions are divided over whether humanitarian
and (military) "peacemaking" operations, which are not intrinsically
compatible, can be combined in ways that do not cause both to suffer.(25)
D.
Civilian Roles and Non-Military Responses to Humanitarian Crises
Among those most concerned
with these recent trends are the growing numbers of civilian personnel,
non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and citizens groups which are now
engaged in the international response to calamities arising from armed
conflicts. The vast majority (over 80%) of the victims of today's conflicts
are civilians, and ultimately it is the local people in strife-torn countries
who must rebuild the peace in their shattered societies. NGO channels,
some with sophisticated networks of their own, are often best placed on
the ground to perform tasks ranging from the most basic delivery of humanitarian
relief to the political reconstruction roles of mediation and election
monitoring, and beyond that to the normative reconstruction of "truth
commissions," war crimes investigations and other forms of human
rights redress.
NGOs obviously lack the
capabilities of military forces for surveillance and security, massive
air and sea lifts, logistics, landmine clearing, etc. But for most humanitarian
intervention purposes, their work is essential, and can be done for much
less money than if left to paid officials. Coordination is a chronic problem,
but many NGOs have been working among themselves to develop operational
guidelines for quick responses and on ways to increase inter-agency cooperation.(26)
Humanitarian agencies are
currently devoting over $2 billion annually to responding to emergency
situations. The UN Department of Humanitarian Affairs estimates the total
requirement for relief to be $4-5 billion, and rising each year. Many
NGOs are worried that this financial drain, coupled with the spiralling
costs of UN peacemaking operations with a humanitarian component, are
competing with resources for long-term development assistance, not with
military and defence allocations. The consequences could be perverse.
As Ed Tsui, Chief of the Office of the Under Secretary for Humanitarian
Affairs in the UN Secretariat has observed: "what is urgent is not
necessarily what is most important in the long term."(27)
Beyond the emergency reaction
(and after the cameras leave), the real test of a sustained international
response comes with the support that is marshalled for the economic, social,
political and normative rehabilitation of the devastated region. Yet such
support is often slow to arrive or barely forthcoming. As a case in point,
the new coalition government in Rwanda has been experiencing great difficulties
in rebuilding a functioning state in the absence of international aid.
Underfunding has also severely hampered investigations of war crimes in
the former Yugoslavia and Rwanda.(28)
Mohamed Sahnoun, the diplomatic
representative sent by the UN to assess the situation for humanitarian
intervention in Somalia in early 1992, and who was later withdrawn when
his advice was not followed, argues strongly that externally based reactive
"quick fixes" can themselves lead to disaster. He laments the
fact that, while resources for military peacekeeping have increased ten-fold,
development aid decreased in 1993 by 10%, perhaps "creating the conditions
for future Rwandas." The real issue, he thinks, is whether the international
system can be mobilized for early preventive interventions, before
the issue becomes one of planning for worst-case militarized recourses.
"Diplomacy should always come first - and it should be done with
great seriousness."(29)
Others involved in humanitarian
diplomacy agree that every possible avenue should be explored prior to
putting troops on the ground, or even when they are there, to minimize
resorts to force to achieve humanitarian objectives. Speaking to a parliamentary
committee reviewing Canadian foreign policy in New York in September 1994,
Steffan de Mistura, Director of Public Affairs for UNICEF, contended that
courageous, ingenious and purely humanitarian techniques of intervention,
on a small scale at the right time, can make a critical difference. He
recounted a personal example in which a mission to protect children in
the besieged Croatian city of Dubrovnik--with a satellite connection along
to capture media attention--was able to embarrass the leadership of the
attacking forces enough to bring about an end to the bombardment of the
city.
Unfortunately, these successes
to have been all too rare and have seemed insignificant compared to the
drama of large-scale "armed humanitarianism." Moreover, the
role of the world media in generating international public pressure at
an early stage of conflict, and catalyzing emergency responses to humanitarian
crises, can itself be a very mixed blessing over the longer term.(30)
Yet, the demand for the
international community to respond cannot wait for all of the unresolved
issues to be settled. Risks will always be present. The hope is that each
experience-- positive, negative, or both--will add to the knowledge base
that can be used to avoid repeating mistakes and to improve mechanisms
for future interventions. As one analyst concludes:
Political, demographic
and environmental stresses suggest that these complex crises will
keep on erupting. Discarding the potential for effective international
responses out of disappointment with early failures isn't an answer.
The system needs more work and more support, not less.(31)
CANADIAN
PERSPECTIVES ON HUMANITARIAN INTERVENTION
Canada has an enviable record
of responding to appeals from the international community. Since 1947,
over 90,000 Canadians have participated in UN and non-UN peacekeeping
missions. Canada has been actively involved in virtually all UN interventions.
Currently, some 2,700 Canadian personnel are engaged in seven of 17 ongoing
UN peace operations, representing about 3.5% of the total personnel contributions
from member states.(32)
Canada is also an internationally
respected development aid donor, contributing many billions of dollars
to poorer countries, including substantial sums for emergency international
humanitarian assistance, which have represented a growing part of the
budget of the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) in recent
years. Nearly $83 million was allocated for this in the fiscal year 1994-95,
with actual costs probably exceeding that sum as a result of rising demands
flowing from Canadian involvement in the increasingly complex military-civilian
humanitarian interventions discussed above.
Canada's program addresses
issues of support for refugees and displaced persons, natural disaster
response, and disaster preparedness aimed at strengthening the capacities
of disaster-prone developing countries to deal with emergency situations.
Canada has sought to improve rapid-response and preparedness levels, in
keeping with the objectives of the current International Decade for Natural
Disaster Reduction, and has provided support through international organizations
and NGOs for activities such as disaster management training, development
of regional emergency telecommunications plans, technical training, simulation
and community workshops.(33)
Notwithstanding this experience,
Canada, along with other countries, is facing some difficult dilemmas
and choices regarding its continued participation in international humanitarian
interventions, especially in post-Cold-War contexts where there is the
potential for UN-sanctioned force to be applied against intrastate belligerents
in defence of humanitarian objectives. Canadian foreign policy clearly
shifted in the 1990s towards a more interventionist normative posture.
However, as several analysts cautioned--
...there is no clear
consensus in Canada or anywhere else on the precise criteria that
would lead international institutions or a collection of states
to intervene in the domestic affairs of other states, although a
variety of criteria have been suggested including the severity of
human rights violations, the exhaustion of alternative measures
to protect victims, the willingness of the victims to be helped,
the need to keep the intervention proportional to the violations
or the minimum force required, the impartiality of the states or
institution suggesting the intervention, and the approval of the
Security Council. Without some specific agreed criteria, it will
be difficult for Canada or any other state to be consistent in its
decisions ... .(34)
Canadian ardour for a "ready-aye-ready"
response to UN appeals has cooled considerably with the increasing threats
to the safety of Canadian peacekeeping personnel in Bosnia. And the serious
charges against several commando-trained Canadian troops sent to Somalia
under the blue flag has strengthened calls, including those of parliamentary
committees, to give more attention to peacekeeping preparation and training
needs, and to bring new approaches to the Canadian response.(35)
One commentator has even suggested that a new concept altogether be considered:
Instead of sending
lightly armed ground troops to risk their lives in unresolvable
conflicts, we should begin to develop a high-tech, highly mobile
disaster-relief force. (...)
If there is one thing
this world is not short of, it is disasters, both natural and man-made,
but we never seem to be prepared for them. There is never enough
shelter, clean water, emergency transportation, rescue equipment
or medical staff.
It should be well
within Canada's industrial and political capacity to put together
two state-of-the-art relief task forces, one based on the east coast,
the other on the west. Each could have a hospital ship, a jumbo-sized
hospital aircraft, helicopters, hovercraft and the necessary technical
and communications support to allow them to cope with medical and
ecological emergencies.
They could be assigned
to the UN when needed. However, unlike regular peacekeeping forces,
they could also be deployed independently of the UN.(36)
During the Canadian foreign
policy and defence reviews of 1994, few voices called for Canada to respond
less to urgent global appeals or to pull back from participation in UN
missions. The idea of Canada as a leading humanitarian state seems firmly
entrenched, even if the image of an "international boy scout"
has given way to less comforting reconsideration.(37)
Many of the witnesses before the parliamentary committees conducting the
public reviews suggested the government support more non-military alternative
forms of involvement in conflict and crisis situations. Among the ideas
brought forward were:
Involving NGOs in
international early warning and crisis monitoring systems, by developing
avenues whereby NGOs operating in regions of tension can provide
timely information about environmental, social and economic conditions
that threaten peace;
Encouragement and
financial support for Canadian NGO efforts in informal or citizen
diplomacy;
Redirection of resources
to preventive diplomacy mechanisms including strengthened recourse
to the World Court, arbitration, mediation and conciliation services
(such as those developed in the CSCE/OSCE), training diplomats in
techniques of nonviolent intervention; arms embargoes, humanitarian
cease-fires and other innovative conflict resolution approaches.(38)
A number of groups endorsed
the development of new international institutions, such as an "International
Criminal Court" to punish humanitarian offences. And despite some
unhappiness with the record of the United Nations, many Canadians have
also called for the bolstering of its capacities in the areas of intelligence-gathering,
communications, coordination, command and control of emergency humanitarian
operations. Project Ploughshares favoured proposals for "a set of
criteria for measuring conditions which should automatically lead to a
full UN review of needs related to natural or human-caused disaster and
which, given certain pre-defined conditions, would `automatically command
the attention of the UN Security Council'."(39)
The comprehensive submission
of the Canadian Committee for the Fiftieth Anniversary of the United Nations
also contained numerous recommendations for enhancing the effectiveness
of peacemaking and humanitarian interventions. More controversially, the
Committee advocated creation of "international peace enforcement
units to be deployed either as a quick reaction force or in other situations
of high risk." Canada was urged to contribute troops, "to be
drawn on a volunteer basis," which would be "more heavily armed
and could undertake a variety of tasks from providing protection for humanitarian
relief work to securing ceasefire lines." In the longer term, the
recommendation was for the UN to control a volunteer force of its own.(40)
The Canadian government
has been very actively considering these issues. In a speech to the UN
Association in Canada, Prime Minister Chrétien spoke of the compelling
need for the UN "to move quickly in a crisis situation. It is unacceptable
for the international community to stand on the sidelines in the face
of humanitarian disaster. The UN needs the tools to fulfil a more difficult
mandate into the next century."(41)
Earlier, addressing the UN General Assembly, Foreign Affairs Minister
André Ouellet, observed that: "Too often, the intervention of the
United Nations comes too late, is too slow and is carried out under inadequate
conditions. ... we must strengthen the UN system's capacity for preventive
action."
In that regard, Canada has
prepared for the Secretary General an inventory of qualified persons to
assist in preventive diplomacy missions. Ouellet also urged that UN organs
such as ECOSOC (the Economic and Social Council) hold periodic public
hearings, "with a view to assisting the UN system to better anticipate
problems and develop strategies for attacking the economic and social
causes of conflicts. The findings of its hearings could be provided to
the Security Council and the Secretary General so they can develop appropriate
preventive measures."(42)
In general, Canadian approaches have stressed the importance of linking
the peacemaking and humanitarian-response agenda to the development agenda,
and in particular to the civic and normative reconstruction tasks of post-conflict
"peacebuilding."(43)
With respect to the international
community's rapid intervention capability, Canada hosted an international
conference of troop-contributing countries in the spring of 1994 to discuss
problems associated with political direction, command and control and
the training of peacekeeping operations personnel. In his speech to the
General Assembly in September, Minister Ouellet announced that Canada
would open a new centre for peacekeeping research and training in Cornwallis,
Nova Scotia. Furthermore, Canada would "conduct an in-depth review
of the short-, medium-, and long-term options available to strengthen
the UN's rapid response capability in times of crisis. Among these options
... the time has come to study the possibility, over the longer term,
of creating a permanent UN military force."
The reports of the parliamentary
defence and foreign policy reviews, in October and November respectively,
were supportive of such initiatives. However, the former warned against
too narrow a specialization of the armed forces for peacekeeping roles,
and the latter admonished that "Canada should resist pressures to
become `the 911 of the international community'." In the future,
the committee advised:
What Canada can do
is to choose when possible those operations which make best use
of the things Canadians do best (e.g., highly professional military
skills, air transport and traffic control, logistics, engineering
and communications, medical teams, policing and civilian mediation).
It may be possible, for example, to combine elements of the "vanguard"
concept with elements of the enhanced civilian-military approach,
so that Canada could help the UN to intervene swiftly, but could
then contribute a smaller force to interface with civilian actors
for the longer haul. Such an approach would probably mean limiting
Canadian involvement to fewer missions but with more significant
participation in each.(44)
In order to improve cooperation
and coordination among the various international, national, governmental
and non-governmental actors in peace and humanitarian operations, the
committee cited suggestions for "a program of personnel secondments,
a systematic exchange of information, and the establishment of an ongoing
tripartite liaison body [presumably involving UN peacekeeping structures,
humanitarian agencies, NGOs and voluntary aid providers] or roundtable
to follow Canada's participation in emergency humanitarian operations."(45)
The Defence White Paper
released in December 1994 emphasized that Canadian responses to security
and humanitarian emergencies should adhere to certain identified "characteristics
in the purpose, design and operational conduct of a mission that enhance
that its prospects for success." Missions "must not become ends
in themselves; they must be part of a comprehensive strategy to secure
long-term, realistic, and achievable solutions."(46)
The White Paper outlined a number of conditions to be met in achieving
operational effectiveness.(47)
But, despite such challenges in a period of fiscal downsizing and the
concerns posed by recent peacekeeping failings, the government reaffirmed
a strong dedication to what it described as Canada's "specialization"
in multilateral operations:
The rehabilitation
of areas that have been the scene of armed conflict represents an
important contribution that the training, skills, and equipment
of our armed forces can make to security abroad. Past instances
of such contributions include the provision of humanitarian relief
supplies and the use of engineers to rebuild infrastructure and
remove land mines. Following the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan,
Canada took the additional step of training refugees to recognize
and disarm land mines. These activities can make an invaluable contribution
in building a more durable peace, and the Government will explore
ways in which the Canadian Forces can contribute further.
Building upon growing experience
with combined military-civilian missions, Canadian armed forces "have
a critical role to play at the outset ... in the establishment of a secure
environment and the provision of basic support (such as transport, emergency
medical assistance, logistics and communications). Over the long-term,
however, reconstructive activities--be they administration and enforcement
of civil law, the provision of medical care, or the distribution of humanitarian
aid--are best left to civilian organizations."(48)
Early in 1995, work is proceeding
on several fronts. A joint committee of Foreign Affairs and Defence department
officials has been established to study the issue of a rapid-reaction
force capability, and a briefing paper on the subject was released in
January. A series of conferences will take place starting in February.
In April, the committee's work will be reviewed by a consultative group
of diplomats, officials, soldiers and academics from the international
community. Major-General Roméo Dallaire, the Canadian commander of the
UN Forces in Rwanda until August 1994 (another Canadian, Major-General
Guy Tousignant, currently commands the 5,800-member UNAMIR contingent),
has been outspoken in calling for change: "The UN must be given the
capability necessary to respond to the increasing number of humanitarian
catastrophes around the world. We have a human, legal and moral obligation
to prevent murder, crimes against humanity and certainly genocide."
In addition to the creation of a standby emergency force with military
capabilities, Dallaire believes the UN urgently requires: a headquarters
senior crisis management corps, a revamped administration and contingency
fund for peacekeeping, a beefed-up humanitarian affairs department, a
global media centre, and an intelligence-gathering capacity of its own.(49)
Although Canada's initiatives
for UN reform along these lines may be viewed sceptically by some other
governments, they are evidence of a continuing Canadian willingness to
assert leadership in an increasingly dangerous area of international organization
and action. The Canadian position, following in the tradition of Pearsonian
multilateralist diplomacy, is not to shrink from responding responsibly
to the imperatives and exigencies of a growing toll of humanitarian emergencies
around the world. As the former Canadian prime minister and Nobel peace
prize laureate characteristically put the Canadian perspective in 1968:
If we believe the
world is made up of powerful irrational forces, that anarchy and
dissolution are always closer than we think, then we have some reason
for optimism, not only because we are still here; but because, under
the pressure or, if you like, the blackmail of facts, we are moving
forward, however slowly.(50)
(1)
See, for example, Matthew Horsman and Andrew Marshall, After the Nation-State:
Citizens, Tribalism and the New World Disorder, Harper Collins, London,
1994; Robert Kaplan, "The Coming Anarchy," The Atlantic Monthly,
February 1994, and Matthew Connelly and Paul Kennedy, "Must it be
the Rest Against the West?", The Atlantic Monthly, December
1994; Wallace Thies, "Rethinking the New World Order," Orbis,
Fall 1994, p. 621-34.
(2)
Thomas Weiss, "The United Nations and Civil Wars," The Washington
Quarterly, Autumn 1994, p. 140.
(3)
Stephen John Stedman, "The New Interventionists," Foreign
Affairs, Vol. 72, No. 1, 1993, p. 3, citing Francis Deng and Larry
Minear, The Challenge of Famine Relief: Emergency Operations in the
Sudan, 1992.
(4)
See Daneesh Sarooshi, Humanitarian Intervention and International Humanitarian
Assistance: Law and Practice, Wilton Park Paper No. 86, London, November
1993, p. 25-27.
(5)
Michael Renner, Budgeting for Disarmament: The Costs of War and Peace,
Washington D.C., The Worldwatch Institute, 1995. For a brief review and
analysis see David Fairhall, "Why Not Budget for Peace?", The
Ottawa Citizen, 20 January 1995, p. A9.
(6)
Robert H. Jackson, "Armed Humanitarianism," International
Journal, special issue on "humane intervention," Autumn
1993, p. 605.
(7)
A. John Watson, "How We Botched It in Rwanda," The Globe
and Mail (Toronto), 23 December 1994, p. 12.
(8)
Jessica Matthews, "Peacemaking Paradox," The Ottawa Citizen,
7 December 1994.
(9)
Cited in ibid.
(10)
Ibid. See also Lionel Rosenblatt, "Ten Steps to Take Now to Avoid
More Rwandas," The Christian Science Monitor, 11 January 1995,
p. 17.
(11)
Cf. "Winds of Change: The United Nations at 50," The New
Internationalist, special issue No. 262, December 1994; Bruce Clarke,
"Each State for Itself," Financial Times of London, 6
January 1995; Barbara Crossette, "Conflicts Spark Debate on Role,"
The Ottawa Citizen, 27 December 1994; Julia Preston, "Massive
World Body Resists Shaping Up," The Washington Post, 3 January
1995; Barbara Crossette, "UN Leader to Call for Changes in Peacekeeping,"
The New York Times, 3 January 1995; "UN Chief Chides Security
Council on Military Missions," The New York Times, 6 January
1995; Lucia Mouat, "Peacekeeping Fatigue Sets in As Risks Rise for
UN Troops, The Christian Science Monitor, 4-5 January 1995.
(12)
Weiss (1994), p. 139.
(13)
Cf. Erskine Childers with Brian Urquhart, Renewing the United Nations
System, Dag Hammarskjold Foundation, Uppsala, 1994, chapter VII, p.112-18;
Larry Minear and Thomas Weiss, "Wanted: New Chief for UN Humanitarian-Aid
Program," The Christian Science Monitor, 10 January 1994.
(14)
Paul Larose-Edwards, The Rwandan Crisis of April 1994: The Lessons
Learned, Report prepared for the Regional Security and Peacekeeping
Division, Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade, Ottawa,
November 1994, p. 33.
(15)
Examples that could be cited in the past decade are the efforts of the
Contadora group in Central America, the Economic Community of West Africa
States (ECOWAS) in Liberia, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN) in Cambodia, the Organization of American States (OAS) in Haiti,
the Conference on (now renamed Organisation for) Security and Cooperation
in Europe (CSCE/OSCE) in the Balkans and eastern Europe.
(16)
Sarooshi (1993), p. 3-4.
(17)
Weiss (1994), p. 150. A detailed case study of Somalia confirms that,
although the country was a member of the Organization of African Unity,
the Arab League, and the Organization of Islamic Conference, "these
bodies had neither the capacity nor the willingness to help" (Samuel
Makinda, Seeking Peace from Chaos: Humanitarian Intervention in Somalia,
International Peace Academy Occasional Paper, Lynne Rienner Publishers,
Boulder and London, 1993, p. 14.) As it was, the unified task force of
37,000 troops ("Operation Restore Hope") that landed in Somalia
in December 1992, under the authority of the UN Security Council's first
Chapter 7 armed humanitarian intervention mandate, was almost completely
U.S.-led.
(18)
Weiss (1994), p. 151.
(19)
Under Secretary General for Political Affairs, Marrack Goulding, quoted
in John Roper et.al., Keeping the Peace in the Post-Cold War
Era: Strengthening Multilateral Peacekeeping, the Trilateral Commission,
New York. 1993, p. 2. On the contemporary types of peacekeeping compared
to that in the classical period, see Goulding, "The Evolution of
United Nations Peacekeeping," International Affairs, Vol.
69, No. 3, 1993, p. 451-64.
(20)
Adam Roberts, "The Crisis in UN Peacekeeping," Survival,
Vol. 36, No. 3, Autumn 1994, p. 97.
(21)
Compare, for example, the critical differences in outlook between the
Roberts article and an earlier similar survey by Michael Renner, Critical
Juncture: The Future of Peacekeeping, Worldwatch Paper No. 114, Washington
D.C., Worldwatch Institute, May 1993. See also the rising volume of conflicting
views and recriminations observed in "Mission Impossible: The United
Nations Contemplates a Pullout from the Quagmire That Is Bosnia,"
Maclean's, 12 December 1994, p. 28ff.
(22)
Roberts (1994), p. 108f.
(23)
Milton Leitenberg, "Rwanda, 1994: International Incompetence Produces
Genocide," Peacekeeping & International Relations, November/December
1994, p. 6-10.
(24)
Kevin O'Brien, "Guest Editorial," Peacekeeping & International
Relations, September/October 1994.
(25)
Matthews (1994). See also the arguments debated in Peacekeeping &
International Relations: Mita Bhattachariya, "Civil Conflict
and the Problem of Armed Humanitarian Intervention," July/August
1994, p. 4-5, and Captain Patrick O'Halloran, "The Problem of Armed
Humanitarian Intervention II," September/October 1994, p. 5-6.
(26)
See the excerpts from a discussion paper by Kumar Rupesinghe, Secretary
General of a leading NGO coalition, International Alert, "Humanitarian
Agencies and Armed Conflict," Ploughshares Monitor, December
1994, p. 17.
(27)
Testimony to the Special Joint Senate-House Committee Reviewing Canadian
Foreign Policy, New York, 16 September 1994.
(28)
Thomas Warrick, "Crime against Humanity: International Effort to
Hold Individuals Accountable for Genocide in Jeopardy," The Ottawa
Citizen, 27 December 1994.
(29)
Mohamed Sahnoun, "Flashlights over Mogadishu," The New Internationalist,
December 1994, p. 11. (Sahnoun is currently a Pearson Fellow at the Ottawa-based
International Development Research Centre.)
(30)
Thomas Weiss observes that: "As well as dramatizing needs, publicizing
human rights abuse, stimulating action, and generating resources, the
media have distorted the kinds of assistance provided, skewed the allocation
of resources and personnel among geographical areas, ignored the role
of local humanitarians, and focused international attention on the perceived
bungling of various agencies" Weiss (1994), p. 152.
(31)
Matthews (1994).
(32)
The numbers are from the summary in Peacekeeping & International
Relations and apply as of 30 September 1994. It is significant
to note that the majority of peacekeeping troops are from developing countries;
the G-7 countries together account for only 18.5% of personnel contributions,
although they finance--usually later than sooner--most of the peacekeeping
budget.
(33)
Canadian International Development Agency, 1994-95 Estimates: Part
III Expenditure Plan, p. 54-55. In the wake of the devastating earthquake
in Japan in mid-January 1995, it is noteworthy that a world conference
on the topic of improving natural disaster preparedness was held in Yokohama
in May 1994.
(34)
Tom Keating and Nicholas Gammer, "The `New Look' in Canada's Foreign
Policy," International Journal, Autumn 1993, p. 740.
(35)
For examination of these issues see: House of Commons Standing Committee
on National Defence and Veterans Affairs, The Dilemmas of a Committed
Peacekeeper, Report, Issue No. 49, June 1993; Henry Wiseman, "United
Nations Peacekeeping and Canadian Policy: A Reassessment," Canadian
Foreign Policy, Fall 1993, p. 137-48; Alex Morisson, ed., The Changing
Face of Peacekeeping, The Canadian Institute of Strategic Studies,
Toronto, 1993; Joseph Jockel, Canada and International Peacekeeping,
Canadian Institute of Strategic Studies and Centre for Strategic and International
Studies, Toronto and Washington D.C., 1994; Robin Hay, Military and
Security Institutions: Challenges and Roles in Democratization and Development,
Martello Paper, Centre for International Relations, Queen's University,
Kingston, forthcoming 1995.
(36)
Hal Jones, "Specializing in Disaster," The Gazette, (Montreal),
17 December 1994.
(37)
See, for example, Chris Giannou, "Canada Can Lead with New Alliances,"
The Ottawa Citizen, 8 May 1994; Marie Paré, "État humanitaire,
ou humanitarisme d'État?," Le Devoir, 30 March, 1994.
(38)
For a discussion of some Canadian examples see Robert Miller, ed., Aid
as Peacemaker: Canadian Development Assistance and Third World Conflict,
Carleton University Press, Ottawa, 1992, p. 161-98.
(39)
Project Ploughshares, "Building Peace," Joint submission to
the parliamentary special joint committees reviewing Canadian defence
and foreign policies, April 1994, p. 5 (citing Larry Minear, Thomas Weiss,
and Kurt Campbell, Humanitarianism and War: Learning the Lessons from
Recent Armed Conflicts, Occasional Papers Series, Thomas Watson, Jr.,
Institute for International Studies, Brown University, 1991).
(40)
Canadian Priorities for United Nations Reform: Proposals for Policy Changes
by the United Nations and the Government of Canada, Prepared by the
Canadian Committee for the Fiftieth Anniversary of the United Nations,
Ottawa, June 1994, p. 21.
(41)
Speech by Prime Minister Jean Chrétien to the United Nations Association
in Canada, Ottawa, 24 October, 1994, p. 4.
(42)
Notes for an Address by the Honourable André Ouellet, Minister of Foreign
Affairs, to the 49th General Assembly of the United Nations, New York,
29 September 1994, p. 4-5.
(43)
As Stephen Randall observes, even in the most "successful" UN
interventions, "peacebuilding is a lengthy and complex process in
which the end of armed conflict is only a beginning in the creation of
civil society." ("Peacekeeping in the Post-Cold War Era: The
United Nations and the 1993 Cambodian Elections," Behind the Headlines,
Canadian Institute of International Affairs, Spring 1994.) See also Stephen
Baranyi and Liisa North, The United Nations in El Salvador: The Promise
and Dilemmas of an Integrated Approach to Peace, Centre for Research
on Latin America and the Caribbean, York University, 1994. For a UN perspective
on these issues cf. Alvaro de Soto and Graciana del Castillo, "Obstacles
to Peacebuilding," Foreign Policy, Spring 1994, p. 69-83.
(44)
Canada's Foreign Policy: Principles and Priorities for the Future,
Report of the Special Joint Committee of the Senate and the House of Commons
Reviewing Canadian Foreign Policy, November 1994, p. 18-19.
(45)
Ibid., p. 19.
(46)
Government of Canada, 1994 Defence White Paper, Ottawa, December
1994, p. 28.
(47)
A study of the Rwandan mission prepared for the Department of Foreign
Affairs also makes several important related recommendations:
- Canada should encourage
the holding of working meetings of UN troop contributing nations, humanitarian
agencies, and human rights agencies (UN and NGO), to create standard operating
procedures and model Rules of Engagement for UN peacekeeping and humanitarian
missions. This should feed into similar processes for "RoEs"
for UN humanitarian assistance or human rights mission members.
- The Canadian Armed Forces
should lead by example in carrying out more extensive training for all
of its members on peacekeeping in general, and the cultural and political
contexts of peacekeeping specifically. In addition, its standby troops
and individuals designated to take on individual roles such as force Commander,
should receive additional intensive training that is more specific to
the country and society that they will be operating in. The issues of
conflict resolution, humanitarianism and human rights must be integral
to this training.
Larose-Edwards (1994), p.
23-24.
(48)
1994 Defence White Paper, p. 32-33.
(49)
"Delegates to Study Feasibility of UN Army," The Globe and
Mail (Toronto), 5 January 1995; Dave Todd, "Canada Seeks Stronger
Peacekeeping," The Ottawa Citizen, 5 January 1995; "UN
Must Give Troops Freedom to Take Action, Canadian Says," The Ottawa
Citizen, 27 January 1995; "Aftermath of Genocide," Maclean's,
6 February 1995, p. 32-34; Remarks by Major-General Roméo Dallaire to
the Library of Parliament Distinguished Visitors Seminar, "The Crisis
in UN Peacekeeping," Ottawa, 27 January 1995.
(50)
Lester B. Pearson, cited in John Cruikshank, "Our Last, Best Hope,"
The World in 1995, The Globe and Mail Report on Business Magazine
and The Economist Publications, January 1995, p. 19. For a long-term perspective,
see also J. Martin Rochester, Waiting for the Millenium: The United
Nations and the Future of World Order, University of South Carolina
Press, Columbia, 1993.
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