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Do monetary policy shocks affect the neutral rate of interest? / Danilo Leiva-Leon, Rodrigo Sekkel, Luiz Uzeda.FB3-5/2026-6E-PDF

"We develop a Trend-Cycle Bayesian VAR that jointly estimates the real neutral rate of interest, r*t, and identifies monetary policy shocks. A key innovation is that cyclical shocks, notably monetary policy shocks, can affect the trend of macroeconomic variables, providing a way to assess whether transitory disturbances have persistent effects. Using external instruments, we find that contractionary shocks reduce r*t, and lower trend GDP growth. Although they generate sizable movements, their contribution to the secular decline in r*t, is modest and slightly positive since the early 1990s. Cross-country evidence shows similar patterns"--Abstract.

Permanent link to this Catalogue record:
publications.gc.ca/pub?id=9.961226&sl=0

Publication information
Department/Agency
  • Bank of Canada, issuing body.
TitleDo monetary policy shocks affect the neutral rate of interest? / Danilo Leiva-Leon, Rodrigo Sekkel, Luiz Uzeda.
Series title
  • Staff working paper = Document de travail du personnel, 1701-9397 ; 2026-6
Publication typeMonograph - View Master Record
Language[English]
FormatDigital text
Electronic document
Note(s)
  • Cover title.
  • Includes bibliographical references (pages 28-32).
Publishing information
  • [Ottawa] : Bank of Canada = Banque du Canada, March 4, 2026.
  • ©2026
Author / Contributor
  • Leiva-Leon, Danilo, author.
Description1 online resource (47 pages) : graphs.
Catalogue number
  • FB3-5/2026-6E-PDF
Subject terms
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