Population projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), provinces and territories (2013 to 2038) : technical report on methodology and assumptions / by Nora Bohnert … [et al.]. : CS91-620/2015E-PDF

This report describes the methodology used to calculate the projection parameters and develop the various projection assumptions for the Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038). Previously combined with the analysis and data tables in a single publication (Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 91-520-X), the description of the methods and assumptions is presented here in a separate, more detailed document. The report contains eight chapters, which provide a detailed description of the methods and various analyses of the components of population growth and the factors likely to affect their evolution in the years ahead. Chapter 1 describes Statistics Canada’s cohort-component projection model. Chapter 2 outlines a new initiative: the Opinion Survey on Future Demographic Trends. This survey is part of a broader consultation process designed to incorporate more expert opinion into the assumption development process. The following six chapters cover the various components of population growth, one by one, in the following order: fertility, mortality, immigration, emigration, non-permanent residents and interprovincial migration. The main report, containing the projection results (Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 91-520-X), includes a summary of the projection assumptions and scenarios.

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publications.gc.ca/pub?id=9.629514&sl=1

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