A theory of longitudinal microsimulation and its application to optimal policy comparisons / Gurupdesh S. Pandher and Milorad S. Kovacevic. : CS11-613/94-5E-PDF

"In this paper, first a general theory of the longitudinal microsimulation process is developed. This abstraction is used to identify an optimal microsimulation design permitting the use of statistically efficient policy comparison methodologies. Next, a statistical model for MSM is obtained from the theoretical representation to estimate and test policy effects and to demonstrate the gains from using the new design on important aspects of the statistical testing methodology (eg. power, sample size, significance level). One important outcome of the proposed MSM design is that dramatic reductions in sample size are uniformly achievable over conventional approaches at any specified level of significance and power for the testing procedure"--Abstract.

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