Assessing the predictive ability of sovereign default risk on exchange rate returns: FB3-5/2017-19E-PDF
“Increased sovereign credit risk is often associated with sharp currency movements. Therefore, expectations of the probability of a sovereign default event can convey important information regarding future movements of exchange rates. In this paper, we investigate the possible pass-through of risk in the sovereign debt markets to currency markets by proposing a new risk premium factor for predicting exchange rate returns based on sovereign default risk. We compute it from the term structure at different maturities of sovereign credit default swaps and conduct an out-of-sample forecasting exercise to test whether we can improve upon the benchmark random walk model. Our results show that the inclusion of the default risk factor improves the forecasting accuracy upon the random walk model at short forecasting horizons"--Abstract, p. ii.
|Department/Agency||Bank of Canada.|
|Title||Assessing the predictive ability of sovereign default risk on exchange rate returns|
|Series Title||Bank of Canada staff working paper,|
|Publication Type||Series - View Master Record|
|Electronic Document|| |
Information identified as archived is provided for reference, research or recordkeeping purposes. It is not subject to the Government of Canada Web Standards and has not been altered or updated since it was archived. Please contact the authoring department to request a format other than those available.
We invite you to consult the Frequently Asked Questions page for additional information regarding the Archived Content notice.
Note: The URLs contained in this/these document(s) may no longer be functional
|Number of Pages||ii, 37 p. :|
|Subject Terms||Capital markets, Exchange rates, Statistical analysis|
- Date modified: