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Equity option-implied probability of default and equity recovery rate / by Bo Young Chang and Greg Orosi.FB3-5/2016-58E-PDF

"There is a close link between prices of equity options and the default probability of a firm. We show that in the presence of positive expected equity recovery, standard methods that assume zero equity recovery at default misestimate the option-implied default probability. We introduce a simple method to detect stocks with positive expected equity recovery by examining option prices and propose a method to extract the default probability from option prices that allows for positive equity recovery. We demonstrate possible applications of our methodology with examples that include large financial institutions in the United States during the 2007–09 subprime crisis"--Abstract, p. ii.

Permanent link to this Catalogue record:
publications.gc.ca/pub?id=9.830344&sl=0

Publication information
Department/Agency
  • Bank of Canada.
TitleEquity option-implied probability of default and equity recovery rate / by Bo Young Chang and Greg Orosi.
Series title
  • Staff Working Paper, 1701-9397 ; 2016-58
Publication typeMonograph - View Master Record
Language[English]
FormatDigital text
Electronic document
Note(s)
  • "December 2016."
  • Includes bibliographical references (p. 14-16).
  • Includes abstract in French.
Publishing information
  • [Ottawa] : Bank of Canada, c2016.
Author / Contributor
  • Chang, Bo-Young.
  • Orosi, Greg.
Descriptionii, 21 p. : ill.
Catalogue number
  • FB3-5/2016-58E-PDF
Subject terms
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