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Perceived unemployment risks over business cycles / William Du, Adrian Monninger, Xincheng Qiu, Tao Wang.FB3-5/2025-23E-PDF

"We backcast subjective expectations on job finding and separation in the Survey of Consumer Expectations to 1978, and use real-time machine learning forecasting to proxy their objective counterparts. We document stickiness in job finding and separation expectations in reflecting changes in real-time job finding and separation risks and their substantial heterogeneity across observable and unobservable dimensions. Calibrating these facts into a heterogeneous-agent consumption-saving model reveals that belief stickiness attenuates the precautionary saving channel. As a result, workers under-insure during recessions, leading to a more sluggish recovery afterwards. The combination of high-risk exposure and under-insurance due to belief stickiness operates as a novel amplification mechanism over the business cycle"--Abstract, page ii.

Permanent link to this Catalogue record:
publications.gc.ca/pub?id=9.954932&sl=0

Publication information
Department/Agency
  • Bank of Canada, issuing body.
TitlePerceived unemployment risks over business cycles / William Du, Adrian Monninger, Xincheng Qiu, Tao Wang.
Series title
  • Staff working paper = Document de travail du personnel, 1701-9397 ; 2025-23
Publication typeMonograph - View Master Record
LanguageBilingual-[English | English]
FormatDigital text
Electronic document
Note(s)
  • "Last updated: August 29, 2025."
  • Includes bibliographical references.
  • Includes abstract in French.
Publishing information
  • [Ottawa] : Bank of Canada = Banque du Canada, 2025.
  • ©2025
Author / Contributor
  • Du, William, author.
Description1 online resource (ii, 65 pages) : charts.
Catalogue number
  • FB3-5/2025-23E-PDF
Subject terms
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