Perceived unemployment risks over business cycles / William Du, Adrian Monninger, Xincheng Qiu, Tao Wang.: FB3-5/2025-23E-PDF
"We backcast subjective expectations on job finding and separation in the Survey of Consumer Expectations to 1978, and use real-time machine learning forecasting to proxy their objective counterparts. We document stickiness in job finding and separation expectations in reflecting changes in real-time job finding and separation risks and their substantial heterogeneity across observable and unobservable dimensions. Calibrating these facts into a heterogeneous-agent consumption-saving model reveals that belief stickiness attenuates the precautionary saving channel. As a result, workers under-insure during recessions, leading to a more sluggish recovery afterwards. The combination of high-risk exposure and under-insurance due to belief stickiness operates as a novel amplification mechanism over the business cycle"--Abstract, page ii.
Permanent link to this Catalogue record:
publications.gc.ca/pub?id=9.954932&sl=0
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| Title | Perceived unemployment risks over business cycles / William Du, Adrian Monninger, Xincheng Qiu, Tao Wang. |
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| Publication type | Monograph - View Master Record |
| Language | Bilingual-[English | English] |
| Format | Digital text |
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| Description | 1 online resource (ii, 65 pages) : charts. |
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